We’ll be treated to an intriguing game on Thursday between two young teams who are off to inauspicious starts to the year at 3-5 when the Portland Trail Blazers visit the San Antonio Spurs.
Portland pulled off an impressive win last time out against the Pelicans, and with an advantage in rest and form against a San Antonio team that's lost two straight, that's where my Trail Blazers vs. Spurs predictions are leaning tonight.
I break it all down in my NBA picks for Thursday, November 7 below.
Trail Blazers vs Spurs prediction
My best bet
Trail Blazers +4 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The eye test tells us the Portland Trail Blazers are the better team. They have a developing big man who’s done nothing but produce in Deandre Ayton, and around him is a full complement of talented young scorers.
Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs have shown promise defensively but, without the help of Jeremy Sochan and Devin Vassell, have looked the part of one of the worst offenses in basketball.
Victor Wembanyama has had an abysmal start to his second season, increasing his volume from outside with 7.1 3-point attempts per game and nailing just 21.4%. It’s also hurt his rebounding numbers, though the Spurs remain seventh in the league in that category.
Portland’s talent may not be translating into results right now, but this should be a great spot to turn that around against a team that allows over 39% of its opponents’ shots to come from beyond the arc — just outside the Top 10 — and ranks 23rd in defending the 3-ball.
It’s not as if the Trail Blazers have taken a large number of shots from deep this season, but judging by this team’s personnel and leading scorer Anfernee Simons, you’d expect a matchup like this to help buoy some of the poor offensive numbers we’ve seen.
On the flip side, Portland has ranked eighth against the three and will look to shut down a Spurs team — particularly Wemby — which has been favoring outside looks lately.
The rebounding battle could swing this in favor of the Spurs, as well as their interior defense, but in a game where neither offense profiles all that strongly on paper, I think you’ve got to side with talent and the team that isn’t down two key contributors.
Trail Blazers vs Spurs same-game parlay
Trail Blazers +4.5
Anfernee Simons 4+ threes
Victor Wembanyama 2+ threes
We’re going to buy low on two struggling 3-point shooters, which isn’t always the most fun thing to do but has to be the best course of action in this game.
The Spurs are allowing a hefty volume of 3-pointers and struggling to defend the shot as well, leading me to this bounce-back spot for Simons. While he’s made four triples just twice this year, it’s important to note it’s not for lack of volume when you consider he’s taken 8.3 per game.
This is a man who's shot better than 38% from deep in his career and surely won’t be down under 32% for the whole season — and the climb back begins against a generous perimeter defense.
Wemby hasn’t exactly proven to be a lights-out shooter, but he’s taking almost half of his shots from beyond the arc and shouldn’t be interested in changing his ways, considering the Blazers have given up the fourth-fewest looks per game at the rim and have stood tall in the frontcourt.
While they’ve done a great job against the 3-ball, the volume has been there both with Wemby and the opponents that Portland has run into, leading me to believe even on another bad shooting night, the big man will get it done.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Trail Blazers vs Spurs odds
Trail Blazers vs Spurs live odds
Trail Blazers vs Spurs opening odds
- Spread: Portland +5.5 | San Antonio -5.5
- Moneyline: Portland +175 | San Antonio -225
- Over/Under: Over 216.5 | Under 216.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Trail Blazers vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread quickly went to -5 points upon opening, and it’s been trending towards the Trail Blazers all day, dipping as low as 3.5 points.
- While 58% of the bets are on the Spurs to cover, 53% of the money is on the Trail Blazers.
- The total was bouncing around between 216.5 and 217 for a good bit before jumping up as high as 218 and leveling back down at 217.5 as of this writing. The bulk of the recent movement has been towards the Over.
- The Over has accounted for 70% of the tickets and 66% of the handle.
Trail Blazers vs Spurs trend
The Trail Blazers have gone Over the third-quarter total in 30 of their last 38 games for +20.85 units and a 48% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Spurs.
How to watch Trail Blazers vs Spurs
| Location: | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 11-7-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSSW, KATU |
Trail Blazers vs Spurs latest injuries
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