Best NBA Player Props Today for 12-27: Getting Grimey

With Luka Doncic sidelined, the door opens for Quentin Grimes to be more of an impact player in the Mavericks' offense. We're getting good plus money on 15+ points tonight vs. Phoenix.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Dec 27, 2024 • 12:35 ET • 4 min read
Quentin Grimes Dallas Mavericks NBA
Photo By - Imagn Images.

The Dallas Mavericks were dealt a tough blow on Christmas Day when Luka Doncic was injured but there are a few players who could step up in his absence. 

My NBA picks are putting a plus-money bet on one of those players with my three favorite NBA player props for Friday, December 27.

Best NBA player props today

Picks made on 12-27 at 12:05 p.m. ET.

NBA player props for December 27

Prop bet #1: Desmond Bane Over 4.5 assists

-115 at bet365

Desmond Bane had only two assists last night but that was in just 23 minutes of playing time in a blowout win against the Raptors. However, Bane had dropped 7+ dimes in his previous five games and has averaged 5.8 assists over the last month.  

The Memphis Grizzlies guard should rack up assists tonight against a New Orleans Pelicans squad that plays at a fast pace and doesn't defend. The Pels are 25th in the league in points per game allowed (117.5) and 28th in assists allowed per game (28.5).

Prop bet #2: Alperen Sengun Under 18.5 points

-115 at bet365

When the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves previously clashed in late November, Alperen Sengun led Houston to an overtime win with a 22-point triple-double. However, there are a few reasons to think Sengun will have a tough time replicating that success as a scorer.

It took Sengun 42 minutes and 23 field-goal attempts to get those 22 points and he's played a total of 52 minutes with 22 field-goal attempts over his last two games. A healthy Steven Adams is now cutting into his minutes at center and emerging forward Cam Whitmore (16 FGA in each of the last two games) has been taking some of his shots. 

Sengun has been held below 17.5 points in six of his last eight games. He won't find it easy to score against a slow-paced Timberwolves team that defends at a high level and has allowed a paltry 36.0 ppg in the paint over their last three contests.

Prop bet #3: Quentin Grimes 15+ points

+235 at bet365

Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic will be sidelined for at least a month with a calf injury that he suffered on Christmas Day. Doncic is third in the league with 21.2 field-goal attempts per game and there will be plenty of shots to go around in his absence. 

One player who will benefit is Quentin Grimes who scored 10 points on 4-for-9 shooting on Wednesday with six of those shots coming in the second half after Doncic was injured.

Grimes has averaged 14.6 ppg across his nine starts this season. He's also dropped 20+ points in three of the last four games Doncic has missed due to injury. Expect Grimes to have a big game tonight against a Phoenix Suns team that is 28th in the NBA in defensive rating (117.7) over the last 15 games.

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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