Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Backing Murray, Grimes at Plus-Money Odds

We have eight games on the NBA odds board for Sunday, January 15, giving us plenty of options when it comes to selecting today’s best NBA player prop bets.

Our three favorite NBA player prop picks for Sunday’s slate expect Mitchell Robinson to dominate on the glass against an undersized Pistons squad and are bullish on the perimeter shooting of Jamal Murray and Quentin Grimes. Let’s dive in.

NBA player props for January 15

• Murray Over 2.5 made threes (+145)
• Robinson Over 10.5 rebounds (+100)
• Grimes Over 2.5 made threes (+155)

Picks made on 1/14/2023 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Blue Arrow bombing

To the delight of Denver Nuggets fans (and the anguish of Los Angeles Clippers fans), Jamal Murray is well and truly back.

Against a Kawhi-led Clippers team hungry for revenge after a 30-point ass-kicking, Murray led the Jokic-less Nuggets to an impressive rout of their West rivals on Friday night. It was another important milestone in Murray’s still work-in-progress recovery from his ACL tear, and the most promising performance to date.

Murray has had bigger scoring games, but he won that game on both ends and was in command of the offense in a way not seen since before his injury. He also splashed in four clutch triples, including multiple takes of the off-the-dribble variety, the shot that allows a star guard to truly break an opposing defense. Those shots follow a pattern for Murray recently, as his legs seem well and truly back in game shape.

He’s up to 38.9% from the perimeter on the season and has hit a scorching 54.8% over his last five games. Murray is in a flow, and his shots should be even easier on Sunday with the expected return of the two-time reigning MVP.

Murray's opposition on Sunday are the Orlando Magic, who are one of the most fun rebuilding teams in the NBA. Orlando already has a collection of great prospects, but for the most part, they’re giants. 

Their best players are all bigs, which lets them play surprisingly strong paint defense despite their youth. But they allow the third most 3-point attempts of any team, and even though Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs are strong on-ball guards, Murray should have no trouble getting one of Orlando’s many bigs switched onto him and hitting the step-back jumper.

Murray’s averaged three 3-pointers over his last 10 games and has hit four or more in three of his last five. I’m betting the Blue Arrow keeps bombing away against the Magic on Sunday.

Jamal Murray Prop: Over 2.5 made threes (+145)

Robinson dominates depleted Pistons

After failing to make the playoffs last year, the New York Knicks have made a remarkable turnaround this season and currently sit at the sixth seed in the East. Most of the credit is going to offseason acquisition Jalen Brunson and a revitalized Julius Randle, who are both turning in All-Star caliber seasons for New York. 

But there’s another player whose play is perhaps even more irreplaceable: fifth-year center Michell Robinson. Robinson is playing the best basketball of his career, and his proficiency as an offensive rebounder is key to the entire Knicks' offensive identity.

The Knicks aren’t an efficient scoring team. They rank fifth worst in the league in effective field goal percentage. Despite that, they have the eighth-best offense in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass, largely because nobody in the NBA does a better job of eating on the glass than Robinson.

Robinson’s only weakness is a tendency to foul, but even there he’s made great strides. It now takes a particular kind of player — a stretch five with legit ball skills — to bait Robinson on a consistent basis. Even put into foul trouble early by Kristaps Porzingis in his last game, he still managed to get to 10 rebounds in just 28 minutes.

Detroit is bleeding bigs right now. Marvin Bagley is recovering from surgery and Jalen Duren is also set to miss Sunday’s game. That means that Robinson is going to have a massive size advantage matched up with Isaiah Stewart, who is generously listed at 6-foot-9. The Pistons’ other option, Nerlens Noel, is a legit shot blocker but a subpar rebounder. 

Expect Robinson to come through big on the boards again for the Knicks on Sunday.

Mitchell Robinson Prop: Over 10.5 rebounds (+100)

Mr. Untouchable

Another player who has been key to the Knicks' recent surge in the standings is none other than former Houston Cougar Quentin Grimes. Knicks fans have taken to referring to Grimes as Mr. Untouchable, as a tongue-in-cheek way of pushing back against those who criticized the Knicks' front office for refusing to include Grimes in a theoretical Donovan Mitchell trade.

Grimes has validated that stance with his strong all-around play this season, both as an outstanding on-ball defender, but also because he’s become a lights-out shooter from the perimeter.

The Pistons are also going to have a tough time containing Grimes because of their frontcourt absences. Whenever they need to put two bodies on Randle or Robinson to contain them in the paint, Grimes will be a kickout pass away. That means Grimes is going to be the beneficiary of a lot of open shots in the corner.

Grimes has had a couple of off shooting nights recently, which is why this number is juiced as high as +155, but that’s why this bet is such great value. 

Grimes is averaging 2.7 threes over his last 10 games and has hit three or more threes in three of his last five games. Based on recent performance alone, there’s a better than 50% chance that Grimes cashes on this prop, which is before considering the favorable context against Detroit.

Quentin Grimes Prop: Over 2.5 made threes (+155)

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