Best NBA Player Props Today: Ingram Gets Going Against the Mavs

Prop bet #1: Brandon gets buckets

I didn't wake up on Monday morning expecting to place an Over bet on Brandon Ingram's odds regarding his points total against the Dallas Mavericks, but wait until you see the adjustment that has been made to his prop thanks to six straight Unders. Six games ago, before his Under streak started, Ingram was trading with a total of 25.5 for his points total — a much different probability than the 18.5 I'm attacking on Monday.

Ingram will be facing the Mavericks on Monday, who are not known for their defense. So, when you have to deal with a trio of offensive weapons such as Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Zion Williamson, the New Orleans Pelicans should be able to create offensive advantages for Ingram at will.

Dallas could also be missing its main rim protector, Dereck Lively, who is questionable with an injury. If Lively is out, the Mavericks will struggle to defend the rim, which could lead to several open shots for Ingram. Dallas will have to send help defense to Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas, creating open looks for Ingram with his jumper.

Ingram is projected to have 21.2 points on Monday against the Mavericks, which allows us to price the Over 18.5 points at -168. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 13%.

Brandon Ingram prop: Over 18.5 points (-125 at theScore)

Prop bet #2: Helping hand

Dejounte Murray's odds surrounding his assist totals have been one of my favorite bets in the last two seasons, and there's a strong possibility this might be the final one with him wearing an Atlanta Hawks uniform. The Hawks were blown out on Saturday against the Washington Wizards, and I think that following their MLK game, we'll see Murray traded away.

Murray will be playing the San Antonio Spurs today, and Victor Wembanyama plays a big factor in this bet. Whether Wembanyama is in the game or sitting on the bench should impact how Atlanta chooses to attack this Spurs defense in what should be a high-scoring game. 

Wembanyama's shot-blocking ability should encourage Murray, who likes to get into the lane to find his corner 3-point shooters for assists. But when Wembanyama is out, the Hawks should look to utilize their lob threats in Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu in the pick-and-roll and put pressure on the rim. 

I think the offensive game plan for the Hawks will be centered around Trae Young and Murray looking to create offense and attacking the weak points of the Spurs' defense, depending on whether Wembanyama is in the game or on the bench.

Murray is projected to have exactly five assists on Monday against the Spurs which allows us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -122, but it is trading at +130. As someone who frequently plays Murray's assists prop, this is a much longer price than we typically see on the total of 4.5 assists for Murray.

Dejounte Murray prop: Over 4.5 assists (+130 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Kyrie all alone

Luka Doncic is doubtful to play for the Mavericks on Monday, which means we should see Kyrie Irving have full control of the offense once again. There's also the slight chance Doncic's status gets upgraded, and we catch a nice boost to this bet by jumping on Kyrie Irving's odds early — but that's not very likely.

Irving just played the Pels on Saturday without Doncic, and he dropped six dimes on 12 potential assists. The 12 potential assists aren't anywhere near as high as you'd like them to be when you see the Over 6.5 assists trading at -175 on DraftKings. This is the reason I'm going Under the total here because although Irving will be on the ball a ton for the Mavs, I think the Over 6.5 is juiced too high.

Irving has the keys to the offense, no doubt, but look at who is surrounding him on offense. Every assist is difficult, as most of them are coming from jump shooters. The Mavericks lob threat, Lively, is questionable with an injury, and Derrick Jones Jr. — who also can play above the rim — is doubtful with an injury.

Swap in Grant Williams and Dwight Powell for Lively and Jones, and those assists become more difficult to convert. Powell himself had eight assists against the Pelicans on Saturday. You know what Lively does when Irving passes him the ball — dunks it for an Irving assist.

Irving is projected to have 6.6 assists on Monday against the Pelicans, which allows us to price the Under 6.5 at -104, but DraftKings has it at +135. The +135 price point played a big part in this wager, as It's much farther off than the rest of the market.

Kyrie Irving prop: Under 6.5 assists (+135 at DraftKings)