Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Adebayo Bullies Hawks, Ayton Gets Grizzled

It’s MLK Day! As the NBA says, let’s honor Dr. King’s pursuit of racial, social, and economic justice.

This day means a lot, and there's NBA action throughout Monday for us. And with nine games on the board, there's no shortage of NBA odds to sort through in the basketball player prop market.

Today, we look at Julius Randle of the New York Knicks, who has been the Raptors' kryptonite. The Miami Heat's Bam Adebayo should enjoy a big day rebounding when he takes the court against the Hawks. And Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton is in for a mauling at the hands of the Memphis Grizzlies. 

Here are my best free NBA prop picks for Monday, January 16.

NBA player props for January 16

• Randle Over 36.5 pts + rebs
• Adebayo Over 10.5 rebs
• Ayton Under 17.5 pts

Picks made on 1/16/2023 at 12:44 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Randle on the Rise

Julius Randle has been roasting the Toronto Raptors. I’m betting on a big game from him when the New York Knicks host the Raps on Monday afternoon.

The Knicks have played the Raptors twice since Dec. 21, with Randle dominating during both matchups. Randle went 13-for-17 shooting for 30 points while adding 13 rebounds on Dec. 21 at Madison Square Garden. Then he went 10-for-22 shooting for 32 points while hauling down 11 boards on Jan. 6 in Toronto.

And to be fair, Randle hasn't just been manhandling the Raptors. He's averaging 29.8 points on 47% shooting with 13.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists over his last 13 games. And he gets a great opportunity to keep that up on Monday against the Raptors.

Toronto isn’t playing at its usual standard defensively. The Raptors' effort has slipped on that end of the floor, with the team ranking 21st in defensive rating over the last 15 games.

Don’t be shocked if Randle grabs double-digit rebounds for the third straight time in this meeting. Toronto ranks 28th in rebounding rate over those same 15 contests. Additionally, the Raps just aren’t hitting many shots right now, with the team ranking dead-last in the NBA in effective field-goal percentage. That means a lot of rebounds will be up for grabs.

Randle’s points and rebounding total is set at 36.5. He flew Over that number in both previous meetings against the Raps and has gone Over it 12 times across his last 13 games.

Julius Randle prop: Over 36.5 points + rebounds (-120)

Outmuscling the Hawks

The Miami Heat have won three straight games, including back-to-back statement victories over the Milwaukee Bucks, thanks in part to All-Star forward Bam Adebayo balling out. Now Adebayo will be a handful for an Atlanta Hawks team that struggles to clean the glass.

Adebayo is one of the NBA's best at what he does. The Heat's big man is averaging 21.5 points on 53.8% shooting while adding 10.1 rebounds per game. But Adebayo has taken his performances to the next level over the center's last 14 contests, upping his scoring to 22.6 points and his rebounds to 11.5 per game. Let's focus on Adebayo’s work on the boards ahead of this afternoon’s matchup.

The Hawks are an undersized team that runs a lot of small-ball lineups. That's cost them on the glass in 2022-23, as they rank 27th in the NBA in rebounding rate. There are also plenty of rebounds up for grabs during the Hawks’ games. Atlanta takes the fourth-most shots per matchup while ranking 24th in effective field-goal percentage.

And it certainly doesn’t help that the Hawks will be without one of their best rebounders in Clint Capela, who's out for the next little while with a calf injury.

Adebayo has snatched 11-plus boards 10 times over his last 14 games, and five times in his last six outings. He should keep cleaning up the glass in this matchup, and I’ll be backing him to go Over his rebounding total.

Bam Adebayo prop: Over 10.5 rebounds (-114)

Growling Grizzlies

Injuries have been battering the Phoenix Suns, and it’s costing them. The Suns are 21-23 and now sit 10th in the Western Conference. And with the likes of Devin Booker and Chris Paul sidelined, you might expect the team to lean on 2018 No. 1 pick Deandre Ayton. But it hasn't been playing out that way.

Ayton is putting up 17.3 points per game in 2022-23, but it’s been tough sledding lately. He’s averaging 13.2 points while shooting just 40.4% from the floor over his last six games, and Ayton has been held to 15 points or fewer five times during that six-game stretch. And it doesn't get easier during Monday’s matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies.

With the likes of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Steven Adams manning the middle, the Grizz are bullies on the inside and rank fourth in the NBA defensively in points allowed in the paint. They'll make life tough on Ayton in this one, so take the Under on his 17.5-point total.

Deandre Ayton prop: Under 17.5 points (-104)

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