Best NBA Player Props Today: Durant Won't Be Denied

Prop bet #1: KD gets his groove back

Kevin Durant is trading with a points total of 23.5, and I love this spot. I think it's an awesome buy-low opportunity on Durant because of his recent game logs. Durant has gone Under his points total in three straight, causing his total to drop by six points from 29.5 to 23.5. I don't think the three straight Unders should worry you, and we can use it to our advantage in tonight's Phoenix Suns game.

Let's take a closer look at those Unders. Durant scored 12 points against the Dallas Mavericks in a blowout, and Devin Booker shot 17-for-23 from the field for 46 points. Why would Durant force shots when Booker had the advantage all night and was very efficient from the field?

In the next game, Durant scores 20 against the Indiana Pacers. Again, it was the Booker show as he scored 62 points on 37 attempts. Durant might have gone Under in this game, but the fact that he scored 20 points in a game where Booker dropped 62 on 37 shots should be encouraging.

In the third Under, Durant scored 15 points against the Orlando Magic. Last time I checked, the Miami Heat don't have a Jonathan Isaac on their roster, who was extremely disruptive to Durant's offensive game.

Durant is projected to score 26.5 points on Monday against the Heat, which allows us to price the over 23.5 points at -162, but it is trading at -118 at Caesars. I would jump at this prop pretty quickly because it has a move to 24.5 written all over it.

Kevin Durant prop: Over 23.5 points (-118 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: Dame's dimes

Last season with the Portland Trail Blazers, Damian Lillard faced the Denver Nuggets four times and he dominated. In those four games, Lillard averaged 37.3 points and 9.0 assists. Even more impressive than the average of 9.0 assists was the fact that he surpassed the total of 6.5 in all four games, with at least eight dimes in each.

I'm not placing an Over bet on Lillard's assists prop simply because of last season's stats with the Trail Blazers, that's not how this works. The only reason I brought this up is that it highlights how much the Nuggets struggled to contain Lillard. Now, he will face Denver with players such as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez, who can finish off his passes at the rim.

It's no secret that Nikola Jokic is an excellent offensive talent, and while he has improved on the defensive end, he isn't a rim protector who can slow Antetokounmpo down from finishing in the paint. This should allow Lillard to convert those potential assists to Antetokounmpo at a higher rate.

The Nuggets are likely to start with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope opposite Lillard. This will result in the Bucks putting the ball in Lillard's hands and running actions to matchup-hunt Jamal Murray, who is a below-average defender. Once the Milwaukee Bucks get Murray on Lillard, the Nuggets will need to send help defense, opening up more opportunities for assists for Lillard.

I believe Lillard has multiple matchup advantages tonight that could lead to an increase in potential assists. With the Over 6.5 assists trading at +115 at bet365, I'm hitting the button as I have Lillard priced at -107 to clear that number. 

Damian Lillard prop: Over 6.5 assists (+115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Back in the Poole!

Jordan Poole? I just lost a unit on this exact bet on Saturday when Poole played the Detroit Pistons, so I know this will be a tough one for many people. But let me see if I can sell you on this Over bet. You can't live in fear. A good number is a good number, and it's a good number because of the narrative around Poole that also has you hesitating to hit the button.

Poole finished Saturday's game against the Pistons with only two assists and stole a unit from my account. However, there were encouraging signs from this game that tell us we should run this back, especially at the price of +155. Poole had nine potential assists against the Pistons, and this is even more encouraging because he accomplished this under new Washington Wizards head coach Brian Keefe.

Not only was Poole involved in the offense and given opportunities to create, but he will be playing in a similar matchup tonight against the San Antonio Spurs. If the Wiz were playing the Minnesota Timberwolves, we might back off of this number, but against the Spurs, Poole will have plenty of opportunities to create in a game that won't feature much defense. The Spurs' best defender is Victor Wembanyama, and his presence should lead to Poole kicking out to his teammates more frequently on his drives.

This is an alternate total I'm playing on Poole because based on the projection of 3.6, this bet shows a higher expected value than betting on 2.5 (-150). Both are good wagers, but the 4-plus assists at +155 is a couple of percentage points higher, and that's where I'm putting my money on Monday.

Jordan Poole prop: 4+ assists (+155 at FanDuel)