I’m back again to close out this weekend’s NBA schedule with another series of NBA picks on Sunday, January 7. With nine games on today there were plenty of NBA odds to choose from, and I’ve gone with plays on Pascal Siakam, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Anthony Davis for my three favorite NBA player props.
Best NBA player props today
- Pascal Siakam Over 22.5 points (-110 at SIA)
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Under 1.5 threes (-145 at bet365)
- Anthony Davis Over 3.5 steals + blocks (-105 at SIA)
Picks made on January 7 at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for January 7
Prop bet #1: That's a hot one
The Toronto Raptors pulled off one franchise-altering trade when they shipped out O.G. Anunoby, and from all reports, it sounds like star forward Pascal Siakam is next to go.
There has been a weird amount of criticism leveled at Siakam by the Toronto front office, including leveling charges of selfishness in his direction that don’t appear to have much on-court basis.
All that noise has begun to overshadow Siakam as a player. His career is an incredible success story, from late first-round pick and G-League player to multiple All-NBA nods while being the second-leading scorer on Toronto’s first championship team.
Siakam is strong, fast, and crafty. His patented spin move is still very effective even though opposing teams have long been wise to his pet move. The Golden State Warriors play a lot of guys smaller and weaker than Pascal. With Draymond Green still out for Sunday’s game they just don’t have a player with the size and strength to match him.
Siakam is coming off a down night against the Sacramento Kings, but before that one game he has been scoring at a season-best rate. Even accounting for that 18-point performance, he’s averaged 28 points over his last five on 68.4% true shooting.
For his points prop to come in a full five points below that mark despite a favorable matchup seems off base to me. That makes the Over on these Pascal Siakam odds my favorite prop bet on Sunday’s board.
Pascal Siakam prop: Over 22.5 points (-110 at SIA)
Prop bet #2: Anti-Pope
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope of the Denver Nuggets is in a bit of a strange shooting slump. He’s still shooting 39.8% from deep for the season but he’s also gone three straight games without a make. But more importantly, and the impetus for this bet, is that his attempts from outside have steadily fallen.
Over his last 15 games, KCP has only had two games where he has attempted more than three triples. That is a shocking stat given that Caldwell-Pope is a known 3-point specialist, and his attempts on the season have also declined despite a slight bump in minutes.
I think these Kentavious Caldwell-Pope odds are a bit too anchored to his previous volume, which is why I like the Under 1.5 threes at -145 against the Detroit Pistons today.
Detroit’s defensive weaknesses are many, but they are not primarily on the perimeter. Cade Cunningham is a decent defender and gives good effort, and that keys the efforts by the likes of players like Alex Burks, Isaiah Livers, and Killian Hayes.
The Pistons manage to limit opponent 3-point volume quite effectively. Only the Indiana Pacers allow fewer opponent 3-point attempts, per Cleaning the Glass.
Their weakness is primarily inside the arc, where their big men struggle to protect the rim or guard pick and roll, and frequent lapses by players like Jaden Ivey concede backdoor cuts. I think KCP will find it easy to continue his recent trend of scoring more from inside the arc than outside it.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope prop: Under 1.5 threes (-145 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Davis dominates battle of L.A.
Sunday sees another of the so-called battles for L.A., as the struggling Los Angeles Lakers host the surging Los Angeles Clippers. This is always an intriguing matchup not only because the number of Hall of Fame players involved can’t be counted on one hand, but because both teams always give their best effort in the rivalry games.
While the Lakers have been stumbling lately and there are now murmurs about Darvin Ham’s job security, their superstars have delivered. Not only have both LeBron James and Anthony Davis largely stayed healthy, they have both been consistently productive and efficient.
AD picked up right where he left off after being the best defender in last year’s playoffs, and while the Lakers' overall defensive metrics won’t wow you, that isn’t his fault. Not only is Davis doing everything he can as a pick and roll defender and rim protector, but he’s also been an outstanding individual defensive playmaker.
Davis is racking up blocks and steals by always having a keen sense of a developing play, and then meeting the opponent at their weakest point with shocking speed and fluidity for someone so big. Davis is averaging 3.8 combined blocks and steals for the season but has upped that to 5.4 over his last five games.
Despite all their shooting talent, the Clippers are not a high-volume 3-point shooting team. A lot of their actions happen between the rim and the 3-point line, and Davis is a master of guarding multiple players at once.
I suspect some ill-advised attempts at the rim by Russell Westbrook or poor attempts to thread the needle by Paul George will make these Anthony Davis odds look far too conservative in hindsight.
Anthony Davis prop: Over 3.5 steals + blocks (-105 at SIA)
Not intended for use in MA.
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