Two? Just two NBA games tonight?
OK, then.
We get what we get with the Association taking it easy on Thursday. It’s a two-game slate featuring a heavyweight bout in the East between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks, and an interesting contest in the West with the New Orleans Pelicans playing the top-seeded Denver Nuggets.
We go beyond the limited sides and totals for tonight, and I give my best NBA player prop picks for March 30.
NBA player props for March 30
Picks made on 3/30/2023 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Phat Albert
The Boston Celtics could be thin up front with Robert Williams and Grant Williams listed as questionable for tonight’s battle with the Milwaukee Bucks.
Robert Williams, who is vital to Boston in matching up with Giannis Antetokounmpo, is nursing an ankle injury while Grant Williams is dealing with a non-COVID illness.
The potential for those two forwards to sit out puts a lot of value in Al Horford’s player projections. Horford would log major minutes at center for the Celtics should those other big bodies be missing or limited.
Tonight’s game total of 236.5 points is calling for a playoff-like atmosphere on defense, with both sides expected to see a downtick from their recent production. And if the Williamses are out, Horford will be saddled with battling on the boards rather than patrolling the perimeter as he prefers.
Horford’s rebound total for tonight is sitting at 5.5 (Over -115), which is below the average 6.7 rebounds he’s wrangled so far this month. Horford has pulled down six or more boards in only five of those dozen appearances but could log added minutes and find himself fighting in the interior more than usual against the Bucks.
The Over on this prop has seen the juice climb as high as -140 at some shops Thursday morning, so find the lowest price tag you can.
Al Horford prop: Over 5.5 Rebounds (-113)
Just Josh’n
The New Orleans Pelicans wrap their four-game road trip by climbing the mountain and taking on the Denver Nuggets tonight.
New Orleans had its five-game winning streak come to a crushing end in Golden State on Tuesday, blowing a 20-point lead and completely coming undone in the second half.
The Pelicans’ past success had plenty to do with the quality of opponents, earning some of those wins against the likes of Houston, San Antonio, Charlotte, and Portland. That beefed up the team’s offensive numbers, which oddsmakers project will drop in Denver tonight with a team total of 110.5 points.
NOLA guard Josh Richardson has a scoring prop of 7.5 (Under -105) tonight. He’s upped his production to nine points per game over the last nine outings, including reaching double figures in four of those showings, but has done so against terrible defenses while receiving extra minutes in one-sided games.
Tonight’s matchup with the Nuggets not only has a short total against a strong defense but New Orleans is a 6.5-point road underdog, meaning that boost in floor time isn’t going to be there for Richardson.
He’s seen his production drop this month, averaging only 8.2 points per game in March after putting up more than 10 per outing in the first five months, and has stayed below eight points in seven of his last dozen appearances.
Josh Richardson prop: Under 7.5 Points (-105)
Like Mike
Denver Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr. could see some extra touches tonight if frontcourt mate and MVP contender Nikola Jokic sits out versus New Orleans — the first of back-to-back games for Denver.
Jokic is listed as a game-time decision with calf soreness and with the Nuggets traveling to Phoenix to play the Suns tomorrow, the team could give their big man a break before that potential Western Conference finals preview.
Porter Jr. has a points total of 17.5 (Over -105) and I have his projection sitting at 18.5 points against NOLA — before factoring in the extra offensive looks he would get with Joker out of order.
Porter is averaging more than 18 points this month and had topped that bar in three straight games (19, 21, and 28 points) before settling for 15 points on 6-of-14 shooting against the 76ers on Monday. That was a down shooting night for the versatile 6-foot-10 forward, who’s knocking down almost 53% of his looks, including a smoldering 47% from beyond the arc, this month.
The last time MPJ played without Jokic on the floor, he scored 19 points on 8-for-14 shooting against Indiana on January 20. He also stepped up with Jokic out on Jan. 13, scoring 22 points on 9-for-17 from the field versus the L.A. Clippers.
Keep an eye on Jokic’s status, but we’ll grab Porter Jr.’s Over on points hoping to get the better number before the injury reports all shake out.
Michael Porter Jr. prop: Over 17.5 Points (-105)
