The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to keep an undefeated start to their season alive as they visit the Denver Nuggets for the second time this year.
The Thunder dominated the first meeting, and I’m expecting more of the same tonight, as I’ll explain in my Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions below.
Read on to see my full analysis of tonight’s game in my free NBA picks for Wednesday, November 6.
Thunder vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet
Thunder -7 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
If the Oklahoma City Thunder didn’t make it obvious enough they were on their way to being a title contender last season, they announced it loud and clear at the start of this year. OKC is out to a 7-0 start, and none of its wins have been particularly close. Every Thunder win has come by 12+ points, and they're 6-1 against the spread thus far.
This early success has been fueled by a defense that's been off the charts in terms of efficiency. OKC has a defensive rating of 93.8; the second-place Warriors are putting up a 102.1 rating. The Thunder lead the league in field goal percentage against (39.0%) and are second in 3-point percentage allowed (28.6%). They lead the league in steals, blocks, and turnovers forced, and it’s also redundant to say they're allowing the fewest points in the league at 95.9 ppg.
It's not as though Oklahoma City is sitting on the ball to boost its defensive stats, either, as it boasts the fourth-fastest pace in the NBA. And with that defensive success, the Thunder have only had to be good — not great — on offense, something that’s been easy to achieve thanks to Shea Gilgeous-Alexander (25.7 ppg), along with support from Jalen Williams (18.3 ppg) and Chet Holmgren (17.1 ppg).
On the other side of tonight’s game, it looks as though the Denver Nuggets have recovered from a slow start, winning four of their last five games. However, Denver will be without two of its starters, as Jamal Murray is in concussion protocol, and Aaron Gordon is out with a calf strain.
That will put even more stress on a Denver lineup that’s not nearly as deep as Oklahoma City’s roster. Nikola Jokic remains an all-world performer, averaging a triple-double on the season so far. Still, with limited support, he’ll be hard-pressed to lead Denver to wins against elite opponents.
In the first game between these teams, OKC held Denver to just 87 points, and that was with Gordon and Murray in the lineup to contribute 24 combined points. The Nuggets scored just 16 bench points, and they’ll have even less depth in tonight’s matchup. The Thunder easily covered in that matchup and should do so again tonight.
Thunder vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Thunder -6.5
Under 222.5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25+ points
OKC's incredible defense should help keep this game Under the total. The first game between these teams came in at just 189 points, and even if Denver can push the pace a bit more in this meeting, it’s hard seeing this game reaching this 222.5-point total.
I’ll also take Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score 25+ points. SGA is averaging 25.7 ppg so far this season and scored 28 points in his first meeting against Denver, making 25+ an excellent target tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Thunder vs Nuggets odds
Thunder vs Nuggets live odds
Thunder vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -4 | Denver +4
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -170 | Denver +145
- Over/Under: Over 222.5 | Under 222.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Thunder vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder are 6-1 ATS this season, while the Nuggets are 2-5 ATS.
- OKC covered in the first meeting and is 3-1 ATS in its last four games vs. Denver.
- The Over is 5-2 when the Nuggets have played this year; the Under has the same 5-2 record in Thunder game.
- Denver is playing to an average total of 234.9 ppg this season, with OKC is averaging a total of just 209.2 points.
Thunder vs Nuggets trend
The Thunder are 4-0 ATS on the road this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Thunder vs Nuggets
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-6-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSNOK, ALT |
Thunder vs Nuggets latest injuries
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