Best NBA Player Props Today: Durant Takes on Role of Facilitator

Prop bet #1: Kyrie lends a hand

This is a buy-low spot on Kyrie Irving, who has gone Under his assist total in six straight games and has seen his total drop from 6.5 down to 4.5. Not only is his assist total trading at 4.5 tonight against the Indiana Pacers but the Over is priced at plus money at BetMGM at +105.

When Irving played the Pacers on February 25, he only had two assists out of four potential assists. Not really the numbers you were hoping to see before placing this bet, but I watched that game and rewatched it again before hitting the button on this prop, so let me explain why I like this bet.

Irving was just off the ball too much in that last meeting. The Dallas Mavericks got caught up in Luka Doncic exploiting the size mismatches he had over Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard, which resulted in Irving getting caught in the corner as a shooter.

Why am I watching Tim Hardaway Jr. run the pick-and-roll? The Mavericks lost this game by 22 points, so expect a different strategy this time out, one of which will be putting Irving on the ball more frequently while matchup-hunting Tyrese Haliburton. The Mavericks let the Pacers off the hook in their first matchup and rarely made Haliburton defend. That's not how you defeat the Pacers.

Irving against Haliburton will create several scenarios where Kyrie will get in the lane, and either Pascal Siakam or Myles Turner will be forced to rotate to help. This will open up potential assists for Irving to his shooters or Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford in the dunker's spot.

Irving is projected to have 5.1 assists, which means we can price the Over 4.5 assists at -130, but it is available at BetMGM at +105.

Kyrie Irving prop: Over 4.5 assists (+105 +140 at BetMGM 33% boost available)

Prop bet #2: KD makes adjustments

The Phoenix Suns are low-key up against it down the stretch because not only do they have the toughest remaining schedule in the NBA, but they are currently sitting in the Western Conference's sixth seed and their lineup is once again banged up. 

Devin Booker will miss Tuesday's game against the Denver Nuggets, and Jusuf Nurkic is questionable with a calf injury. The injuries are bad for the Suns overall, but they could help us with the Over on our assists prop for Kevin Durant.

The Suns don't have a natural point guard, which has been the narrative all year, and it's true. The one player who kind of took over that role was Booker, but he is out with an injury. Not only is Booker out, but they could be down Nurkic, who is used as a mini-hub in their offense and also does a good job of finding shooters and cutters for easy buckets.

Someone is going to have to create, and that responsibility will fall on Durant and Bradley Beal, and I don't think KD's price point fully reflects that at 4.5 (-120). I mean, we have seen Durant's assists total trade at 5.5 (-110) when the Suns have everyone healthy.

Not only will there be more pressure on Durant to create offense for others, but in the Suns' previous game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, when the Durant and Beal minutes were staggered, OKC blitzed Durant and sent doubles. I'd expect to see the same from the Nuggets to make the other guys on the Suns beat them. This could lead to several potential assists for Durant out of the double team.

Durant is projected to have 5.3 assists, which means we can price the Over 4.5 assists at -152, but it is available at -120 at bet365.

Kevin Durant prop: Over 4.5 assists (-120 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Answer the McCollum

This gives off similar vibes to the Alex Caruso bet we placed on Monday, where I believe CJ McCollum's assists prop is reacting to his recent game logs, but that doesn't paint the whole picture. I know the New Orleans Pelicans are running Zion Williamson more at the point, but a total of 3.5 (-106) for McCollum? How do you not hit the button?

In two of the last three games that McCollum has played, he only logged 15 and 25 minutes and fell way under his assists total. It looks bad in the game log, but when he played 15 minutes against the Miami Heat, he left with an ankle injury, and the 25 minutes he played against the Indiana Pacers was due to it being a complete blowout when the Pelicans had the Pacers down 20+ early in the first half.

The 3.5 (-106) is just a good price in general for McCollum, but the matchup against the Toronto Raptors also enhances the play. The Raptors will be without starting center Jakob Poeltl on Tuesday, and Scottie Barnes is also out after undergoing a procedure on his fractured hand.

This means Kelly Olynyk will be the starting center on Tuesday, and the rim protection will be almost nonexistent. McCollum has teammates such as Zion and Jonas Valanciunas, who will be able to finish at the rim and convert McCollum's potential assists at a high rate against this depleted frontcourt of the Raptors.

McCollum is projected to have 4.6 assists, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -192, but it is available at Caesars at -106.

CJ McCollum prop: Over 3.5 assists (-106 at Caesars)