Best NBA Player Props Today: Another Victory for Vucevic

Prop bet #1: Pascal passes with precision

Pascal Siakam is someone who has consistently stood out in the numbers, showing an edge on the Over for his assists prop since being traded to the Indiana Pacers. With a matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday, this was a bet I just had to place. 

Siakam's assists prop behaves in a way where he consistently trades at 3.5, but we see varying juice depending on his recent game logs. You'll see him open at +130 for the Over 3.5 in one game and then -150 in another. The Pascal Siakam odds have my attention at +110, and this is a number I expect we will see gain momentum and probably get pushed up to 4.5 at some sportsbooks because of the matchup. 

The Timberwolves are tough for Siakam because they have positional size and multiple players who can guard him in the post. Siakam is an effective scorer in the paint, but I think you'll see him spend more time on the perimeter and driving to the rim instead of posting up. When Siakam gets met on these drives by the help defense of Rudy Gobert, Siakam should be looking to pass the ball, providing us with potential assists. 

Not that they need to be convinced, but we will likely also see the Pacers put an emphasis on their transition offense and beating the Timberwolves down the floor so they don't have to consistently try to score against their half-court defense. Siakam is a very efficient player in transition; it's why the Pacers traded for him, and if they are looking to run and beat Gobert down the floor, Siakam could also get some easy assists this way. 

Siakam is projected to have 4.2 assists on Thursday against the Timberwolves, which allows us to price the Over at -144, but it is trading at +110 at DraftKings.

Pascal Siakam prop: Over 3.5 assists (+110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Nikola's knack

We're back on the Nikola Vucevic odds bandwagon once again! The Chicago Bulls center delivered us two green checkmarks last week in our NBA player props, and we're going for three in a row here. I'm feeling pretty good about this one because we backed off his assists prop in his previous two games, and he went Under in both. It's not like we're betting on an Over streak here with Vucevic, we're just hoping to time his prop once again with a solid price point and matchup.

I said it once, and I'll say it again: Over 2.5 assists (-120) is just a good price for Vucevic regardless of the matchup. They bumped him up to the -140 and -150 range after his back-to-back Overs that we cashed in on, which made me stay away. But now that we're back down to -120, I'm hitting the button.

Vucevic will be taking on the Golden State Warriors on Thursday, as both teams are on the back end of a back-to-back. When Vucevic played the Warriors on January 12, he only had two assists but on seven potential assists. That grabs your attention with Vucevic because he only averages 5.8 potential assists per game on the season.

The Bulls should be looking to get Vucevic paint touches against the small-ball lineup of the Warriors. If Vucevic makes his first couple of shots, the Warriors should begin to help and open up potential assists for Vucevic. I also expect we will see Vucevic be able to facilitate some offense from the high post after being the screener in the pick-and-roll against the Warriors' defense.

Vucevic is projected to have 3.3 assists on Thursday against the Warriors, which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -168, but it is available at DraftKings at -120.

Nikola Vucevic prop: Over 2.5 assists (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Bet on Bam

Bam Adebayo has gone Under his assists total in four straight games, which has not only dropped his total from 4.5 down to 3.5, but we're getting nice plus money (+125) on the Over 3.5 assists. It's not only the drop in his total that matters for this bet, but the juice is also a big factor. If Adebayo were trading at 3.5 (-120), we would have to stay away from this bet. 

Not only has Adebayo gone Under his total in his last four games, but this Under streak started when the Miami Heat began starting Nikola Jovic and Duncan Robinson alongside Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, and Terry Rozier. Over his last four games, Adebayo is averaging 4.8 potential assists per game with Jovic and Robinson in the starting lineup, whereas his season-long average is 6.3 potential assists per game. 

Am I doing a good job of selling this bet?

The beauty of sports betting is that while the potential assists for Adebayo may be down in this starting lineup, it doesn't mean there isn't a probability gap in the adjusted price point for Adebayo. Not only is there a probability gap in the new price of 3.5 (+125) for Adebayo, but the matchup also helps.

The Dallas Mavericks have the worst defensive rating in the NBA since we returned from the All-Star Break at 126.0. The Wizards have the second-worst rating at 122.8. The Mavericks have been 3.2 points per 100 possessions worse than the Wizards; that's not good at all.

Adebayo is projected to have 3.9 assists on Thursday against the Mavericks, which means we can price the Bam Adebayo odds at -116 to go Over the total of 3.5, but it is available at bet365 at +125. You can see how the drop from 4.5 to 3.5 plays a major role in this bet and how we need a big plus money price to establish that probability gap.

Bam Adebayo prop: Over 3.5 assists (+125 at bet365)