Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find our best NBA player prop bets.
Doncic might be battling multiple injuries, especially one to his knee, but that won't stop me from betting on some Luka Magic tonight!
Find out why I'm backing the Over on Doncic's points prop in my free NBA picks for Monday, May 13.
Best NBA player props today
- Doncic Over 29.5 points (+112 at FanDuel)
- Dort Over 1.5 threes (-128 at FanDuel)
- Strus Over 2.5 assists (+116 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 5-13 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for May 13
Prop bet #1: Luka Magic is back
Luka Doncic is stuck in the Dorture Chamber and battling an injury to his knee. He has gone Under his points total in all three games of this series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and we have seen his points prop adjust from 32.5 to 29.5 as a result. This number was as high as 34.5 against the Los Angeles Clippers in the previous series. At 29.5 (+112), I'm hitting the button on the Over.
With Lu Dort as his primary defender and the Thunder help defense shading toward him, limiting Doncic's production. This strategy would be fine for the Thunder, and I'd expect them to run it back again in Game 4, but they have lost the last two games and are down 2-1 in the series.
With all of the defensive attention on Doncic, the Dallas Mavericks put the ball in Kyrie Irving's hands more in Games 2 and 3 as their adjustment. Irving has had 20 and 16 potential assists in these two games, respectively, and has been the primary playmaker.
The Thunder have kept Doncic in check, but it's been at the expense of everyone else on the Mavericks' roster — whether it's Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively as lob threats or PJ Washington with open jump shots — having big games. Washington has exploded for 56 points over the last two games.
With the Thunder down 2-1, something strategically has to change, and it's time they put more pressure on Doncic and see what he is capable of with his injured knee. It's a scary idea, but the other way isn't working, and something has to change. It does feel like to a certain extent they are bailing Doncic out with his injury by allowing Irving to be the primary ball-handler.
You don't have the biggest edge on this prop, and it is vital that you price-shop when placing this bet. Doncic is projected to score 29.9 points, which allows us to price the Over 29.5 points at -103, but it is available at FanDuel at +112.
Luka Doncic prop: Over 29.5 points (+112 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: Throwin' Dorts
This bet, to a degree, comes down to your stance on what the Thunder will do with Josh Giddey and his minutes. Part of me wants to attack the Over on some of Giddey's props because the numbers have adjusted to a point where you need barely any floor time to establish an edge. But then another part of me, when I watch the film, thinks this might be the game where the Thunder completely move on from Giddey.
Instead of betting on a scenario where the minutes are up in the air, I'm targeting a different prop that could benefit from Giddey being out of the lineup where the minutes are much more secure: Dort hitting at least two 3-pointers.
Leaving Giddey in the lineup is a bailout for Doncic's defense and it also hurts other Thunder shooters trying to find space to get a 3-point shot off. The Mavericks don't guard Giddey on the 3-point line, and it allows for all of the defense to shade towards other shooters and not lose them on any rotations.
However Mark Daigneault wants to play this, Dort's 3-point prop would be the beneficiary from Giddey being faded. Whether it's Aaron Wiggins or Isaiah Joe, their presence in the lineup would force the Mavericks to extend their defense and guard them on the perimeter. This means they can't focus on Dort's 3-point shooting and just concede threes to Giddey, which should free up some open looks for Dort.
I do think Dort has an edge on the Over on his points prop as well at 9.5, but I much prefer attacking the threes prop. Dort's offensive game is limited, and the Mavericks have elite rim protection in Lively and Gafford.
Dort is projected to make 2.2 threes on Monday against the Mavericks, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 threes made at -165, but it is available at FanDuel at -128.
Lu Dort prop: Over 1.5 threes (-128 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #3: Strus your stuff
Max Strus' assists prop is a bet that I have been keeping a close eye on here in the NBA Playoffs, as the odds continue to adjust due to his recent Under streak. On Monday, at 2.5 (+116) at FanDuel, it's time we finally strike.
Strus has been extremely underwhelming when it comes to his 3-point shooting, only hitting 30.4% in the playoffs, but he still plays a crucial role for this Cavaliers squad and, more importantly, JB Bickerstaff trusts him. Strus is playing 37.3 minutes per game in this series and played a team-high 40 minutes when the Cavaliers defeated the Celtics in Game 2.
Strus was being used as the screener in the pick-and-roll with Donovan Mitchell on several possessions in that game. This creates more space for Mitchell, but it also creates scenarios where Mitchell will find Strus on the pop, and he can make an extra pass against a rotating defense for a potential assist.
Then, there's how guard Darius Garland capitalized on the lack of rim protection in the Celtics lineup with Kristaps Porzingis injured. Garland had a handful of assists to Evan Mobley, which were converted at the rim with a dunk. Strus is a shooter, but he can also put the ball on the floor and take advantage of Mobley's ability to finish above the rim against the Celtics defense.
Another thing working in Strus' favor for his assists prop is Jarrett Allen's potential return. Allen would give him another lob threat for assists, while a pass to Dean Wade represents another avenue. Wade is an excellent 3-point shooter who can knock down a shot off of a Strus pass, whereas in previous games, that might have been Tristan Thompson, and he just makes an extra pass.
Strus is projected to have 3.1 assists on Monday against the Celtics, which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -142, but it is available at FanDuel at +116.
Max Strus prop: Over 2.5 assists (+116 at FanDuel)
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