Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Green's Numbers Keep Sliding

With just three games on Tuesday's NBA slate, the pickings for prop bets are slimmer than usual. With little selection, it can be tougher to hunt good value — and all the more important to make your bets count.

So we're here to help you navigate the trenches of tonight's NBA player prop markets. We've found a great bet from each of the evening's three games, so you can get in on the winning no matter which matchup you're sweating. 

Here are our best free NBA prop picks for November 16. 

NBA player props for November 16

• Green Under 23.5 pts+rebs+asts (-112)
• Harris Over 19.5 points (-104)
• George Over 8.5 rebounds (+115)

Picks made on 11/16/2021 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Faded Green tones

Draymond Green's brilliance as a defender, playmaker, and high-IQ emotional lynchpin of Golden State's roster can't be sold short. He's legendary in terms of a veteran presence who does the little things, raising his team's collective floor immensely while sacrificing his own shine for the greater good. 

But, in doing so, his popcorn stats are on the decline — particularly his scoring. Green's only scored in double digits once in seven games this month, happy to let the rest of Golden State's roster get their reps. As such, he's also topped tonight's total of 23.5 points+rebounds+assists just once in those seven games. 

Green will continue to pile up rebounds and assists at a solid rate, but even then, he's recorded double digits in either of those categories only once this month (10 rebounds versus Charlotte on November 3). Still, it's his lack of scoring makes it difficult to trust him hitting this Over.

The Warriors have been obliterating opponents with a balanced approach, and Draymond's not one to mess with what's working, even in a high-profile matchup against the Nets. 

Pick: Draymond Green Under 23.5 points+rebounds+assists (-113 at FanDuel)

Offensive Harrisment

Tobias Harris is the man in Philly right now. 

Despite Tyrese Maxey's awesome efforts while Harris and Joel Embiid were sidelined, the stretch four's return relegates the Sixers' upstart PG to a clear second-banana role. 

Harris will continue to see the lion's share of the touches until Embiid returns, and although we don't have a massive sample size from this season (all of two games), it feels pretty safe to say that Harris' total of 19.5 points tonight seems low, even against the Utah Jazz. 

Harris scored 19 against Toronto's uber-annoying defense, playing in his first game in two weeks since contracting COVID. So let's assume that's more or less indicative of his floor right now. He got 22 shots against Indiana in Philly's last game — scoring 32 — and with Embiid still out, he'll be looking at very similar usage. 

Even with Embiid in the lineup, Harris is 4-2 against this total, so without him, he feels like a near-lock to score 20+. 

Pick: Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

George on the boards

The Spurs are a bit of a mark for rebounding props, insomuch as their point guard is their leading rebounder and, as a team, they own the NBA's 24th-ranked rebounding rate. 

As such, we're targeting the Clippers' rebounding props for tonight, especially with backup 6-foot-9 center Drew Eubanks starting for San Antonio. Ivica Zubac easily delivered on a rebounds Over for us Saturday night, despite only playing 23 minutes in a blowout win. But Zubac also only played 23 minutes in the Clippers' last outing against the Bulls, and we just can't count on the playing time given the Clippers' small-ball tendencies when San Antonio's only true center is out. 

Instead, we're backing Paul George, who will be an integral part of literally anything the Clippers do this season. George's total sits at 8.5 tonight, which he's cleared in six of his past eight games and nine of 13 overall on the season. 

We're getting plus money on the Over against a team that projects far below the league average as a rebounding unit. Fire away. 

Pick: Paul George Over 8.5 rebounds (+115 at DraftKings)

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