Best NBA Player Props Today for 12-26: Boxing Day Ablaze

Boxing Day basketball doesn't have the same star power as its Christmas Day counterpart, but there's still a ton of value on the NBA player props market, including Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija vs. Utah.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Dec 26, 2024 • 12:19 ET • 4 min read
Deni Avdija Portland Trail Blazers NBA
Photo By - Imagn Images.

Nine games are tipping off across Boxing Day and there are plenty of great betting spots in the NBA player props markets.

Tonight my NBA picks are on a trio of role players as I back Deni Avdija and Mark Williams in favorable matchups while fading Jaime Jaquez Jr. against an Orlando Magic squad that has been tough to score on at home. 

Here are my best free NBA player props for Thursday, December 26.

Best NBA player props today

Picks made on 12-26 at 11:55 a.m. ET.

NBA player props for December 26

Prop bet #1: Mark Williams Over 7.5 rebounds

-110 at bet365

Mark Williams has had problems staying healthy, but the seven-footer has made a big impact on the glass when he's been on the court. The Charlotte Hornets center was averaging 9.7 rebounds in 26.7 minutes per game as a sophomore last season before suffering a season-ending back injury. 

He missed the first 20 games with a foot injury this year and made his season debut on December 3, playing just nine minutes against Philadelphia. He came off the bench and saw limited minutes in his next two contests but has started the last four games with his playing time steadily increasing. He had nine rebounds in 19 minutes on Monday and has now pulled down 8+ boards in three of his last four games. 

The Washington Wizards are 28th in the NBA in rebounding rate (47.7%) and are banged up in the frontcourt with Kyle Kuzma sidelined and Alexandre Sarr questionable. They are also fourth in the league in pace and those extra possessions have resulted in allowing a league-high 57.6 rebounds per game.

Prop bet #2: Jaime Jaquez Jr. Under 11.5 points

-110 at bet365

Jaime Jaquez Jr. averaged 11.9 points in 28.2 minutes per game as a rookie with the Miami Heat last season. However, both numbers have plummeted this year, with the sophomore averaging just 8.7 points in 21.4 minutes.

The O/U for his points is set at 11.5 today despite Jaquez going below that number in 16 of his last 20 games. Jaquez and the Heat also have a tough matchup on the road against the Orlando Magic. The Magic play at the sixth-slowest pace in the NBA and are third in defensive rating which has led to them allowing a league-low 101.1 ppg at home. 

Jimmy Butler is doubtful tonight but even if the All-Star forward is sidelined that doesn't necessarily mean a bigger offensive role for Jaquez. In seven games without Butler this season, Jaquez has averaged just 9.4 ppg while logging more than 25 minutes in just one of those contests.

Prop bet #3: Deni Avdija Over 13.5 points

-105 at bet365

Forward Deni Avdija is coming off a 19-point performance against the Mavericks and he has stepped up over the last month for the Portland Trail Blazers. He has now scored at least 14 points in 11 of his last 13 contests and is averaging 15.6 ppg on 50/44/78 shooting splits in that span.

Today, Avdija and the Blazers host a Utah Jazz squad that is last in the league in defensive rating and 28th in scoring defense (119.5 ppg allowed). The Jazz have been even worse defensively on the road where they surrender 121.2 ppg on 48.4% shooting.

With Jerami Grant mired in a shooting slump (eight points on 3-for-19 shooting over the last two games), expect Portland to keep Avdija involved in the offense.

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NBA odds today

Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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