After both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets dominated their opponents in the first round of the NBA playoffs, they’re set to square off in Round 2, with intriguing NBA player props to target for some of the game's biggest stars.
The NBA odds have the defending champion Nuggets as a 4.5-point home favorite in Game 1, but the Timberwolves could prove pesky with the play of their budding superstar.
Find out my best NBA picks for player props in Timberwolves vs. Nuggets on Saturday, May 4
Best Timberwolves vs. Nuggets NBA player props
- Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
- Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 rebounds (-110 at DraftKings)
- Jamal Murray Under 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (-102 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 5-4 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for May 4
Prop bet #1: Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 points
There was a time when Anthony Edwards was viewed as a major boom-or-bust player coming out of Georgia. An inconsistent collegiate career soured many on his pro prospects, despite the eye-popping athleticism.
Fast forward to his fourth season in the NBA, and he’s taking the league by storm with his scoring prowess and off-court personality. He’s been so dynamic that after a violent dunk against the Phoenix Suns, he drew comparisons to Michael Jordan.
After averaging 25.9 points per game in the regular season, the two-time All-Star has taken his game to another level in the playoffs. Against the Suns, he averaged 31 points per game and scored at least 33 in three of four games.
Obviously, the Nuggets are a totally different proposition as one of the best, if not the best, teams in the NBA. Still, coming off a 40-point game to send the Suns to the golf course early, Edwards should be able to build on the momentum.
During the regular season, he led the Timberwolves in minutes (35.1), field goal attempts (19.7), and free throw attempts (6.4), and they’re asking even more of him in the playoffs. His usage has been wild with 39.5 minutes, 20.5 field goals attempts, and 7.8 free throw attempts — and it’s only increasing with back-to-back games of over 40 minutes and over 30 combined field goals and free throw attempts.
So, while the Nuggets pose a tougher matchup than Phoenix, win or lose, Edwards should see enough touches to record 28 points. He’s scored at least 29 in seven of his last eight postseason games.
Anthony Edwards prop: Over 27.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 rebounds
Once again, it appears that Nikola Jokic is just far better at basketball than anybody else in the NBA right now. Sure, he’d rather be racing horses with his brother, but a few more series wins, and he’ll get to do so with his second Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Jokic has been compared to a father playing pool basketball with his children because he’s just so much bigger and better than everyone else on the court, and nobody can seem to stop him. That’s been especially true when it comes to pulling down boards.
In Denver’s first-round series against the Los Angeles Lakers, Jokic was putting up video game numbers, but his rebounding was one of the biggest advantages he gave the Nuggets against LeBron James & Co.
Jokic averaged 16.2 rebounds per game in the opening round series and put an exclamation mark on the series with 20 rebounds in Game 5. In five games against the Lakers, he had at least 12 rebounds in every game with Over 12.5 in four of five.
His size, power, and soft hands should have him looking like Rob Gronkowski plucking rebounds with ease in Game 1 against Minnesota.
Nikola Jokic prop: Over 27.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Jamal Murray Under 34.5 points + rebounds + assists
There’s been plenty of praise for Jamal Murray over the last two seasons, he’s been a postseason killer. His last-second daggers against the Lakers will both go down among the most clutch plays of the year.
And while Murray is coming off his best game of the playoffs so far (32 points), he’s only topped 34.5 points, rebounds, and assists in two of his last four and now must face the best defense in the NBA.
Minnesota ranked first in the NBA this season in both points allowed (106.5) and defensive rating (109.0) and has a nightmare trio of perimeter defensive options. As a result, the T-Wolves held teams to the third-fewest 3-pointers per game this season (11.4).
Not to mention, Rudy Gobert’s anchoring the inside and will likely earn his fourth Defensive Player of the Year. With Gobert protecting the rim, Minnesota allowed the lowest field goal percentage in the NBA (45%).
Jamal Murray prop: Over 34.5 points (-102 at DraftKings)
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