Raptors vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Fade Toronto's Offense in Beantown

It is more than likely that the Toronto Raptors will host the Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference play-in game. But for now, they need to use their final two games to tune up and must show some improvement when they take on the Boston Celtics at TD Garden for the second straight game.

Even without the services of Jayson Tatum, the Celtics won a defensive battle on Wednesday night, stifling the Raptors and earning a 97-93 victory.

Do the Raptors stand a chance with the Celtics’ star expected to return to the lineup tonight? I break down the NBA odds for this Atlantic Division matchup and bring you my best bet in our free NBA picks and predictions Raptors vs. Celtics on April 7.

Raptors vs Celtics best odds

Raptors vs Celtics picks and predictions

Both the Raptors and Celtics are more than likely locked into their current playoff position, so it will be interesting to see the effort that will be put into this game from both teams. Unfortunately, for the Raptors and their fans, getting buckets may be just as difficult this time around.

The Celtics played Wednesday’s matchup without two of their best defenders in Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart and still managed to limit the Raptors to 93 points on 41% shooting, including a putrid 6-for-33 from 3-point range. Even though Toronto will likely hit a few more threes this time around, the team’s overall offensive output won’t be too much more.

Toronto's struggles both on the road and in the halfcourt have been well-documented this season. The Raptors are just 14-26 on the road this season and rank 23rd in scoring at just 111.6 points per game.

When the Raps' aren’t out running in transition and the offense slows down, they just don’t have the shot-making ability to have sustained success. Even though they have seen some improvement since acquiring Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline, the team still ranks 27th in effective field goal percentage and 28th in 3-point shooting percentage since the All-Star break.

Now they’ll go up against a Celtics team that ranks third in the NBA when it comes to defensive rating, and Toronto has certainly had its struggles scoring when going up against the East’s top teams.

The Raptors are averaging just 105.7 ppg over the course of 14 matchups against the Celtics, Bucks, 76ers, and Cavaliers. Not surprisingly, all four teams rank in the Top 10 in defensive rating. They’ve also topped 110 points just four times over those 14 games, with one of those games coming against the Giannis-less Bucks.

The Raptors team total is sitting at 110.5 for the second straight game, which feels way too high. Take the Under on Friday night in Beantown. 

My best bet: Raptors team total Under 110.5 (-105 at PointsBet)

Raptors vs Celtics spread analysis

The spread for this Atlantic Division matchup is interesting. The Raptors were about 4-point road underdogs for Wednesday’s game and once Jayson Tatum was ruled out, the line closed at Raptors +2.

This time around, the Raptors opened at +2.5 and moved to a pick’em late Friday morning before some Celtics money moved the line to Raptors +1. That is interesting because Tatum is not on the injury report this time around. However, Smart, Derrick White, and Malcolm Brogdon are all questionable. 

This feels like the same story all over again. 

The Raptors are overvalued here, especially if both Tatum and Jaylen Brown suit up. Despite winning eight of their last 12 games, the Raps don’t have too many notable wins over that stretch, three of those four losses came against the Celtics, 76ers, and Bucks.

This is really one of those situations where you need to wait and see until close to tipoff to see who is actually starting before making a wager on the spread. That said, the Celtics are exactly the type of team that gives the Raptors the most problems, having won all three meetings this season.

As long as all of Boston’s stars don’t sit this one out, I’d lean toward the Celtics. 

Raptors vs Celtics Over/Under analysis

Despite the low-scoring affair on Wednesday, the total for this matchup opened at a similar number of 222.5. Considering I’m already banking on the Raptors to have yet another low-scoring output in this matchup, I would lean toward the Under on the full-game total as well.

While the Celtics have one of the best offenses in basketball, their motivation may not be as high right now since they are pretty much locked into the Eastern Conference’s second seed. Plus, they are going up against a Raptors defense that has been much better in the second half of the season, ranking second in defensive rating since the All-Star break.

These teams also seem to always play tight, low-scoring games. Their three meetings this season have seen an average of 208.7 points per game, with two of those three games falling below this number. Throw in the fact that these are two squads who rank in the bottom half of the NBA when it comes to pace of play, and this game should fall Under this total once again.

Raptors vs Celtics betting trend to know

The Under is 20-7 in the Raptors' last 27 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record and 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Raptors and Celtics. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Celtics.

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