The Toronto Raptors got a late Christmas present in the form of a matchup with the Washington Wizards this past Wednesday, but the holiday is over as they hit the road to take on the Eastern Conference-leading Boston Celtics.
The Celtics are playing the second half of a back-to-back but the first leg was a doozy. Boston trailed the Detroit Pistons, losers of 27 in a row, 66-47 at halftime last night before fighting back and eventually getting the win in overtime, extending the Pistons’ dubious record to 28 straight losses.
The NBA odds still have the Raps as sizeable underdogs, can Toronto take advantage of this spot and cover the spread? I break down this Atlantic Division matchup and bring you the best in my NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Celtics on Friday December 29.
Raptors vs Celtics odds
Raptors vs Celtics predictions
The Toronto Raptors got a much-needed win against the Washington Wizards on Wednesday night, and it wasn’t that it was just a win, everything worked for the Raps.
Head coach Darko Rajakovic finally made a change to his starting lineup, swapping in Gary Trent Jr. for Dennis Schroder. Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby played very well and the team went 15-38 (39%) from 3-point range in the Raps’ 132-102 win.
The Boston Celtics, unfortunately, present a test on a whole other level. The Celtics lead the East with a 24-6 record and are second in the NBA in net rating. They also rank in the Top 5 in both offensive and defensive ratings.
The Celtics are also 2-0 straight up against the Raptors this season. The first meeting was in Boston on Nov. 11 which the Celtics won 117-94, covering the 8.5-point spread. They also won the second meeting, that time in Toronto, but the Raps were able to cover as 9-point home pups in a 108-105 final.
Luckily, despite being on the road, Toronto gets a big break entering this matchup.
Boston will be playing the second half of a back-to-back on Friday night and last night was intriguing, to say the least. The Celtics were trailing the Detroit Pistons by 19 points at the half and it looked like the Pistons' notorious streak might come to an end. But the Celtics mounted a furious comeback in the second half and eventually won the game 128-122 in overtime.
So, the Celtics really seemed to give it their all, to not be the first team to lose to the Pistons in two months. And immediately following the win, star player Jayson Tatum said he would be questionable for this matchup with an ankle injury. That’s on top of Jaylen Brown already being questionable with a back issue.
If the Celtics want to use this game against the Raptors as a bit of a load-management or recovery day I wouldn’t be shocked. And the Raptors' defense is good enough (they rank 14th in defensive rating) to keep this game close in this situation.
The Celtics clearly didn’t want to be the team the Pistons ended their horrific losing streak against and gave it their all. But the second half of a back-to-back against the Raptors? Yeah, they don’t care about that. Take the points with Toronto before Tatum officially is declared out.
My best bet: Raptors +7.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Raptors vs Celtics same-game parlay
Raptors +7.5
Under 226 points
Raptors highest scoring quarter — Third
As always, our same-game parlay tips off with my best bet which for this Atlantic Division clash is the Raptors to cover the 7.5-point spread as underdogs. A big part of that play is because this is a combination of a tough schedule spot and injuries. That kind of rolls right into the total as well. So, let’s add the Under 226.
On top of that, the Celtics could have some heavy legs as this game wears on, and that elite defense of theirs could start to show some cracks. Meanwhile, this Toronto team should be motivated to build some momentum coming out of the Christmas break.
The Raptors score their most points in the third quarter this season, so going against a Celtics team running on fumes I’m betting that holds and taking the third quarter to be the highest scoring for the Raps in this matchup.
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Raptors vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis
The Raptors opened this matchup as 8.5-point road underdogs but with the Celtics playing their second game in as many nights and Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both questionable for this game the Raps have seen the early action, moving the line down to 7.5.
I broke down why I’m taking the points with the Raptors above, but the Celtics are also a ho-hum 5-6 ATS in their last 11 games when favored by 7.5 points or more.
Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 225.5 and that’s around where the number remains as of early Friday afternoon. That makes sense considering the total for the last two meetings were 224 and 222. But both of those games fell well below those numbers and I would lean toward that happening again.
Tatum and Brown potentially being out is a big part of that, but they played the previous meetings. But the main reason to like the Under is the Raptors' inconsistent shooting.
Toronto just isn’t a shooting team. The Raptors rank 18th in offensive rating, 21st in effective field goal percentage, and 27th in 3-point shooting percentage. Those struggles have shown vs. solid defensive teams and the Celtics rank third in defensive rating and sixth in opponent effective field goal percentage.
A spot where both teams could struggle to get buckets sounds like an Under to me.
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Raptors vs Celtics betting trend to know
The Raptors have hit the 3Q moneyline in 37 of their last 62 games for +7.2 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Celtics.
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Raptors vs Celtics game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, December 29, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, NBC Sports Boston |
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