Raptors vs Knicks Picks and Predictions: Toronto Limited With Scottie Barnes Out

Don't look now, but the Toronto Raptors have scrapped and clawed their way to a three-game win streak and have been an early-season surprise through the season's first two weeks.

While Toronto is a feel-good story, it has had the luxury of playing five of its first seven games from the comfort of home — and plays the middle leg of a three-game road swing tonight against the 5-1 New York Knicks as 7-point NBA betting underdogs.

The Raps passed their first two road tests so far this season — can they deliver under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden? Get our thoughts with our free NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Knicks on Monday, November 1.

Raptors vs Knicks odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This line opened at New York -6.5 but early action on the Knicks has ticked this spread up to -7. The total has seen much bigger movement, dropping from the opening mark of 212.5 to 208.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Raptors vs Knicks predictions

• Prediction: Knicks -7 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 208.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Raptors team total Under 100.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 11/1/2021 at 1:39 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Raptors vs Knicks game info

• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
• Date: Monday, November 1, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: MSG, TSN

Raptors vs Knicks betting preview

Injuries

Raptors: Scottie Barnes (Doubtful), Pascal Siakam F (Out), Yuta Watanabe F (Out).
Knicks: Nerlens Noel C (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Knicks are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games as a favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Knicks.

Raptors vs Knicks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

It was expected to be a season of ups and downs for this young Raptors team, which has some obvious deficiencies (a true center and a true point guard) but has some very intriguing talents (an endless array of athletic wings). And lo and behold, after starting the season 1-3 the Raptors have now won three in a row, sitting above .500 despite missing star forward Pascal Siakam for this early stretch.

One of the big factors in Toronto's strong start has been the play of rookie Scottie Barnes, the fourth-overall pick who has averaged 18.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per game while providing major energy and defensive intensity, but there are a couple of reasons to fade the Raptors tonight.

1) Scottie Barnes is likely not playing tonight.
2) The Raptors are playing on the road in a less-than-friendly environment.

Barnes suffered a sprained thumb in Saturday night's win over Indiana, and the team announced he was doubtful to suit up against New York. Losing your leading scorer is always tough, but it's especially difficult for a team that lacks offensive depth and is 26th in true shooting percentage, 27th in effective field goal percentage, and 22nd in points per game.

Compare that to a Knicks side that seems to be bursting with depth and scoring points by the bushel. New York has 10 players averaging at least 13.3 minutes and 5.2 points per game, and is currently second in the league in ppg, TS%, eFG%, and third in offensive rating. The Knicks have also been raining down threes, shooting an NBA-best 42.7 percent from beyond the arc on 41 attempts per game (sixth-most in the league), compared to a Raps team that attempts the sixth-fewest triples and hits just 32.5-percent of such shots.

Toronto also had the luxury of playing five of its first seven games at home, with a raucous and supportive crowd fueling this young Raptors team. Tonight, the Raps will be playing just their third away contest of the year — where the MSG faithful will be anything but supportive of these visiting foes.

The Raptors might be able to hang with the Knicks in New York if fully healthy... but with Siakam AND Barnes in street clothes, we're going to have to side with the home squad tonight. 

Prediction: Knicks -7 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Knicks were one of the league's stingier defensive units last season, and while their defensive rating of 108.0 (21st in the league) suggests they've regressed... they're still not that bad.

New York has given up the 12th-most opponent ppg, but that number is buoyed by giving up 134 to Boston in the season opener (in double overtime). The Knicks actually give up the fifth-lowest opponent shooting percentage, fifth-fewest second-chance points, and fourth-fewest points in the paint. New York has yet to actually give up more than 117 points in regulation this season.

The Knicks, despite being the second-highest scoring team in the league, play at the fourth-slowest pace in the Association... and the Raptors play even slower. Both sides are going to use the clock and limit the number of possessions in this game — while the Knicks have maximized the points per possession, Toronto has not nearly been as effective.

This is a very low total tonight, but we've got two strong defenses against two offenses that don't actually generate a lot of possessions. The Knicks might still be efficient, but you can only score so much with limited opportunities — and the Raptors aren't going to run up the score, especially without Barnes.

Prediction: Under 208.5 (-110)

Best bet

We've talked about the Raptors struggling on offense at the best of times — but without their best player through the early part of the season? Don't expect TO to light up the scoreboard.

Toronto has failed to top 100 points in three of its seven games this year, including Saturday's 97-94 win over the Pacers. The key to putting up points on an underrated Knicks defense is by hitting threes to keep up with the 'Bockers — but that is neither a Raptors' strength nor preference.

We see the bright lights of New York being a little too much for these Raps, who will undoubtedly give an inspired effort... but don't have the talent to top their point total tonight.

Pick: Raptors team total Under 100.5 (-110)

Pages related to this topic