With the amount of times the Toronto Raptors have seen Pascal Siakam recently, it almost feels like he never left. The Raps will take on Siakam and the Indiana Pacers for the second time since trading the All-NBA forward.
Spicy P and the Pacers needed a late comeback to take that Valentine’s Day matchup but were unable to cover the 2.5-point spread in a 127-125 final. This time around they'll meet at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse where the NBA odds have Indiana as a six-point home favorite.
Can Siakam fuel his new team to another win, or is there some value in Toronto as a road dog? I break down this Eastern Conference matchup and bring you the best bet in my free NBA picks for the Raptors vs. Pacers on February 26.
Raptors vs Pacers odds
Raptors vs Pacers predictions
The Toronto Raptors have come out of the All-Star break flying. They thumped the Brooklyn Nets by nearly 30 points and followed that up with a 123-121 win over the Atlanta Hawks as 7.5-point road underdogs on Friday night.
Toronto has been shooting the ball well the last couple of games, and while the Indiana Pacers don't play much defense, it may be hard for the Raps to keep up with all of Indy's weapons. And one of those weapons is of course former Raptor Pascal Siakam.
When these teams met just before the break, the Pacers talent took over late and Siakam was a big part of that. Spicy P put up 23 points on 8-for-17 shooting while adding seven assists and five boards.
Those who have followed Siakam throughout his career know stat lines like this aren’t out of the ordinary, and he’s kept that up as a member of Indiana. Siakam is averaging 20.8 points on 56.2% shooting with 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game since joining the team.
While Spicy P does a little bit of everything, for this matchup I want to look at his assists prop, which is sitting at 3.5. Now, I think we’re getting a bit of a lower number here because he’s only gone Over this in two of his last six games.
But one of those two was against the Raptors when he dished out seven dimes, and he's gone Over this number in 10 of his 17 games with the Pacers.
On top of that, Toronto surrenders the sixth most assists per game in the NBA. And we saw in that last meeting Scottie Barnes will be assigned to guard Siakam for much of the game, which could force the ball out of his hands even more.
Now, I noted on Twitter this morning this line could move and it has. It went from the +130 to +120 range to a range of +105 to +100 by early afternoon. But even at even money, there is still value on the Over here. Looking at his alternate assists isn't a bad idea either. Let’s ride with Spicy P’s assists once again.
My best bet: Pascal Siakam Over 3.5 assists (+100 at PointsBet)
Raptors vs Pacers same-game parlay
Pascal Siakam Over 3.5 assists
Scottie Barnes Over 20.5 points
Jakob Poeltl Over 11.5 points
My gut says the Raptors lose another close game here, but I still believe we could see a couple of solid offensive performances from some of Siakam’s old buddies.
Now, despite being a poor defensive team, the Pacers don’t give up a ton of threes. Instead, they get killed in the paint where they allow the second most per game in the NBA. That has me eyeing point totals for Jakob Poeltl and Scottie Barnes.
Both had big games when these teams last met on Feb. 14 with Barnes putting up 29 on 12-for-22 shooting while Poeltl went for 19 going 8 of 15 from the floor.
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Raptors vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
The Raptors opened this Eastern Conference clash as 6.5-point underdogs and have seen the early action with the line moving to Toronto -6.0 as of early Monday afternoon.
There could be some faith in the Raps to keep another game close after impressive back-to-back wins and how they probably should have beaten the Pacers the last time they met. That said, Toronto’s defense still holds me back from taking it ATS here.
The Raptors rank 29th in defensive rating since January 1 and are going up against arguably the best offense in the Association this season.
That does have me looking at the total of 245 however. That hit the board at a characteristically high, at least for Pacers games, and that’s basically where it sits as of writing this.
The February 14 meeting saw the total close at 247 and still went Over. This is pretty simple really. Two bad defensive teams and one good and one great offensive team. Even at the high number I would lean Over.
Raptors vs Pacers betting trend to know
The Raptors have hit the game total Over in 19 of their last 27 away games for +11.3 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Pacers.
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Raptors vs Pacers game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Monday, February 26, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Indiana, TSN |
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