We got to see the full spectrum of the new-look Toronto Raptors in Sunday night’s loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Raptors got off to a great start, shooting and moving the ball well, and held a 20-point lead in the third quarter. But Toronto’s inexperience and defensive issues surfaced as OKC slowly chipped away before coming back to steal the win in double overtime.
The Raps will have to put that tough loss behind them quickly as they will play the second half of a back-to-back when they visit Zion Williams and the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.
But the NBA odds don’t like Toronto's chances, listing the visitors as double-digit underdogs. Will the Raps have enough energy to keep this closer than the spread suggests?
I break down this matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Pelicans.
Raptors vs Pelicans odds
Raptors vs Pelicans predictions
The Toronto Raptors were left licking their wounds following Sunday's 135-127 double-overtime loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, a game in which they held a 23-point lead in the third quarter.
The gut-wrenching loss was Toronto’s 11th in its last 13 games, but the Raptors don’t have time to dwell on the defeat as they’ll play their second game in as many nights when they take on the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.
The Pelicans sit in seventh place in the Western Conference at 28-21 but have been battling consistency lately and are just 5-5 straight up and against the spread over their last 10 games.
A big part of that usually comes down to whether Zion Williamson is healthy or not, and he was clearly healthy when he made the game-winning layup in the Pels' 114-113 victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Friday night.
New Orleans ranks ninth in the NBA in net rating, 13th in offensive rating, and eighth in defensive rating. But that defense has slipped a bit, dropping to 18th over the last 10 games (Zion has missed three of those 10 games).
The biggest issue over that period has been on the perimeter, where they are surrendering an NBA-high 41.3 attempts from 3-point range per game, allowing opponents to hit 36.1% of those. And when Jakob Poeltl has been in the lineup since making the trades for RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley (six games), the Raptors are shooting 39.3% from beyond the arc, which includes going 14-for-45 (40%) on Sunday.
The other way to attack the Pelicans is with the extra pass. New Orleans ranks 19th in opponent assists per game while the Raptors are second in helpers. So, ball movement could be the key to keeping the Raps in this game for a while.
Also, keep an eye on the Pelicans' injury report. Despite the rest, Williamson is once again questionable, and so is starter Herb Jones.
Yes, the Raptors are coming off a heart-wrenching double-overtime loss, but 11.5 points is too many to give them.
The Raps have an offense that can take advantage of the Pels' weaknesses and the last time Toronto was an underdog of this size, it was also at the tail end of a back-to-back. That time was against the Los Angeles Clippers as 11.5-point pups. The Raps lost that one 126-120 but easily covered. As long as everyone is available tonight, I’m betting they cover again.
My best bet: Raptors +11.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Raptors vs Pelicans same-game parlay
Raptors +11.5
Zion Williamson Under 23.5 points
Jonas Valanciunas Over 10.5 rebounds
To keep this one close, the Raptors need to contain Zion, so let’s add Williamson to go Under 23.5 points as our second leg.
The Pelicans power forward is averaging 22.3 points per game this season but it feels like he’s been all-or-nothing lately. Williamson is putting up 22 points per game over his last 12, scoring 27 or more four times in that stretch and 19 or fewer five times. He’s fallen below this number six times in that run and is nursing a foot injury.
Let’s close this SGP out with former Raptor Jonas Valanciunas. The Pels big man is averaging 9.7 rebounds per game this season and 10.3 over his last seven games. The Raps rank 28th in rebounding rate since the start of January. JV’s rebounding prop is sitting at 10.5, a number he’s gone Over three times in that seven-game stretch, and a matchup with Poeltl should mean more minutes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
The Raptors hit the NBA odds board as 11.5-point underdogs and the line has yet to move off that number as of Monday afternoon.
As of writing, all key Raptors players appear available for this matchup, but maybe some are waiting to see if that changes as tipoff approaches. As noted, Toronto played a double-overtime game in Oklahoma City just last night and the starters logged some heavy minutes.
Scottie Barnes, Barrett, and Quickley all played at least 42 minutes with Barnes topping them all with a whopping 48. So far, it is just Barrett who has been listed out for injury management.
When it comes to the total, that opened at 230.5 and has been bet down slightly to 230. Even though I like the underdog in this matchup, I believe their best chance to keep this one close is with offense if, once again, everyone is available.
With Toronto ranking 28th in defensive rating since the start of January, I would have a slight lean to the Over tonight.
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Raptors vs Pelicans betting trend to know
The Raptors have covered their last three games as underdogs of 6.5 points or more. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Pelicans.
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Raptors vs Pelicans game info
| Location: | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Monday, February 5, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports New Orleans, Sportsnet |
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