Two entertaining teams face off in NBA action tonight when the Toronto Raptors head to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder.
The high-motor Raptors have done a decent job of navigating without the presence of Pascal Siakam, going 2-1 in his absence. Toronto still can’t overlook OKC, however, despite the fact the Thunder have lost four in a row. This is a lightning rod of a team, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has taken his game to the next level.
Can the Raptors cover the 5.5-point chalk, and who will step up in Siakam’s absence? I dig through the numbers and bring you my best bet in our NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Thunder on November 11.
Raptors vs Thunder best odds
Raptors vs Thunder picks and predictions
The loss of Pascal Siakam for any amount of time is tough, particularly when you consider the level at which he was playing before he got hurt. But the Raptors are a team built to be able to handle a loss like this, at least for a little while.
This is a team in every sense of the word. Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., Scottie Barnes, and O.G. Anunoby can pick up the slack. You can already see it happening, as all four of those players have seen point total props get a bump over the last few days.
I have still found some value in a prop that I like in tonight’s matchup against the Thunder, centering around Anunoby. He has seen his usage rate go up over the last four games and is averaging a meager 10.9 field goal attempts per game over his first eight games of the season. That number has since skyrocketed up to 18 attempts over his last four games.
Anunoby has averaged 22.3 points on 48.6% shooting, including 45.5% from 3-point range over that four-game stretch. Now he gets an interesting matchup against OKC.
Oklahoma City has weaknesses on defense, both on the perimeter and on the glass. The team ranks 18th in opponent 3-point percentage and is 19th in attempts allowed per game. On the boards, the Thunder rank dead last in opponent rebounds per game and 27th in rebounding rate.
O.G. has averaged 29.1 points and rebounds over the last four games and has gone Over 28.5 points and rebounds three times in those contests. We are getting plus money for him to go Over that number once again tonight.
My best bet: O.G. Anunoby Over 28.5 points and rebounds (+115 at PointsBet)
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Raptors vs Thunder spread analysis
The Raptors opened this matchup as 5-point road favorites and have been bet up slightly to 5.5. They are 2-1 since losing Siakam to a groin strain, and their depth will be tested even further as key bench player Precious Achiuwa is now out for an extended period of time with an ankle injury.
But if there is a team that can handle the loss, it’s the Raptors. Toronto will lean more heavily on VanVleet, Anunoby, and Barnes. It also means more minutes for the likes of Otto Porter Jr. and Thad Young.
That should still be more than enough to take care of business against the Thunder. OKC has cooled off after a hot start, losing four in a row, straight up and against the spread. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging an impressive 31.6 points, 5.6 assists, and 4.5 rebounds, but he isn’t getting a ton of support because the team still ranks 27th in offensive rating.
Now they face a Raptors team that ranks seventh in defensive rating and lead the NBA in steals by a fairly wide margin. Even down Siakam and Achiuwa, the Raptors have the ability to frustrate the Thunder offense and cover this spread. I would lean toward the favorite here.
Raptors vs Thunder Over/Under analysis
The total for this matchup has seen a bit of movement already. It hit the board at 220.0 and was bet up to 222.0 before coming back down to the opening number. That’s where the total sits as of Friday afternoon.
The Under has gone 2-1 since the Raptors lost Siakam, with the total ranging between 220.0 and 223.5 in those games, and the average points scored sitting at 216.7.
The Raptors' offense has been very efficient this season, but even with their depth, losing Siakam and his nearly 25 points per game hurts. Additionally, while the Raptors are great in transition, the half-court offense leaves something to be desired.
The Thunder don’t turn over the ball a ton and will know their best chance will be to slow the game down and let their seventh-ranked defense set up.
As noted, the Thunder aren’t getting a ton of production outside of SGA and are going against a stingy Raptors defense that ranks fifth in points allowed per game (106.8).
All things considered, I would lean toward a lower-scoring contest in OKC on Friday night.
Raptors vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Thunder.
Raptors vs Thunder game info
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Friday, November 11, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports Oklahoma |
Raptors vs Thunder key injuries
