Welcome to the NBA Playoffs. They have already begun. This regular-season finale between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Golden State Warriors is a playoff teaser.
If L.A. pulls off the road upset, it should be positioned as the No. 5 seed out West rather than the No. 7 seed. If Golden State holds on at home, it should enter the postseason as the No. 6 seed rather than the No. 7.
My Clippers vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks have to treat this like a playoff game, as avoiding the Play-In makes it that important. Tip comes at 3:30 ET on Sunday, April 13.
Clippers vs Warriors prediction
My best bet: Clippers moneyline (+120 at bet365)
My analysis
Treating this like a playoff game may make you think there should be blind trust in Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler, but that would overlook Kawhi Leonard and how well the Los Angeles Clippers have played since he fully returned to the rotation.
Frankly, L.A. has played better than the Golden State Warriors in their respective surges in the West. The two of them have hardly blinked for over a month, turning this race out of the Play-In into the best drama of this regular season.
The Warriors’ surge dates back furthest, going 20-6 outright since the All-Star break, hardly stumbling since trading for Jimmy Butler. They have enjoyed the top defensive rating in the NBA and the No. 7 offense over that span. It should all be praised.
The Clippers’ surge began not when Leonard first returned to the lineup; as long as his minutes and availability were limited, Los Angeles could not find the rhythm it needed. Leonard first cleared 34 minutes on Feb. 28. Aside from missing the second night of some back-to-backs, his limitations were lifted.
Since March 5, the Clippers have gone 17-3 outright, buoyed by the No. 3 offensive rating in the NBA in that stretch and thus the No. 1 net rating since March 5, +13.6 more than two points better than the Celtics at No. 3.
Los Angeles has been better than Golden State during their respective surges, including compared to expectations. The Clippers have gone 14-6 against the spread as they marched up from No. 9 to possibly No. 5 in the West. The Warriors have gone a more meager 14-10-2 since the All-Star break and, for better context, 8-9-2 ATS since March 5.
Golden State is a deserved favorite simply because the stakes amplify homecourt advantage, but a shooting thumb injury for Steph Curry looms large. He played through it in a must-win game on Friday, but the new injury admittedly bothered him.
The Clippers are already playing better than the Warriors. Trust them to show it in their first meeting in 2025. The way both are playing, it may not be their last meeting this spring.
Clippers vs Warriors same-game parlay
Clippers moneyline
Over 218.5
Ivica Zubac Over 13.5 rebounds
Two thoughts lead into betting this Over: First of all, the Clippers have skewed slightly toward the Over during their 20-game surge, cashing 12 Overs in that stretch while the Warriors have gone 13-13 on totals in their post-All-Star break surge.
Secondly, the stakes of this game could elongate the fourth quarter. Avoiding the Play-In is underappreciated. No one wants to risk being one loss away from facing the Thunder. A frenetic fourth quarter could push past this total.
L.A. center Ivica Zubac should feast against Golden State’s relatively undersized lineup. Zubac has improved this season beyond what most have recognized, something that may become quite clear this postseason. So if balking because this prop is as high as 13.5, first realize the Warriors are starting Draymond Green at center these days, and second, learn Zubac has grabbed 20 rebounds in three games in the last month.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Clippers vs Warriors odds
Clippers vs Warriors live odds
Clippers vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +4.5 | Golden State -4.5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +160 | Golden State -190
- Over/Under: Over 222 | Under 222
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Clippers vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened with the Clippers as 4.5-point underdogs on Saturday, taking on money in the evening to push as low as +2 before settling at some books at +2.5.
- At least some of that movement should be seen as doubt in Curry’s shooting motion. As spectacular as he is, a thumb injury could be quite costly.
- The total falling from an opener of 222 to as low as 217 further underscores some tentative doubt in Curry.
Clippers vs Warriors trend
With almost every game a must-win, the Clippers have won seven straight and have gone 3-2 outright as underdogs since March 5. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Warriors.
How to watch Clippers vs Warriors
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Sunday, 4-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Clippers vs Warriors latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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