The Houston Rockets’ hopes of reaching the postseason dwindled with a Sunday night loss against Dallas, and they would be just about dashed if Houston loses again tonight. The Minnesota Timberwolves are 7.5-point favorites in the NBA odds and desperate for a win of their own, scrapping to regain top billing in the Western Conference.
Both teams are on deceptively tiring stretches, one that is arguably wearing on the Rockets more. In regards to the Timberwolves, the fatigue is showing up most in one specific player’s legs, but Anthony Edwards has focused his energies on his teammates as his shot seems to struggle.
That recipe has been working for Edwards, so let’s trust him to stick with it in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Rockets vs the Timberwolves on Monday, April 2, with tip set for 8:00 ET.
Rockets vs Timberwolves predictions
My best bet: Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 assists (+121 at Pinnacle)
The NBA refuses to create its best product. Even when so much basketball attention is devoted to March Madness, the NBA schedules a grueling stretch just before the playoffs. The Houston Rockets have played every other day since March 19, tonight being its eighth game in the last 15 days. Factoring in travel days, the Rockets have had only two genuine days off in the last two-plus weeks.
Meanwhile, tonight will be the Minnesota Timberwolves' fourth game in the last seven days with only one genuine day off, continuing a stretch that has seen a total of 13 games in 27 days including tonight. Yesterday may have added some life to the Timberwolves’ legs, but the overall stress is growing.
The NBA could dial back the schedule by 10 games and create a better product to end the season, but instead, it wears out its players in the most important games.
That wear has shown up on Anthony Edwards lately. Since Karl-Anthony Towns had surgery to repair his meniscus, Edwards has obviously taken on more of a workload to keep Minnesota in the mix atop the West. He starred out of the gates, but in his last five games, Edwards has averaged only 19 points, shooting just 40% from the field and 26.9% from deep, including going 1-of-17 in his last three games. For context, Edwards averaged 28.3 points on 48.2% shooting from the field and 36.5% from deep in the first seven games without Towns.
It is not just that Edwards missing shots. He is also taking fewer 3s, probably knowing his legs are zapped. He averaged 7.4 attempts in those first seven games and just 5.2 in the last five.
All along, Edwards has moved the ball. In the first two games sans Towns, Edwards shot 62 times. He then began to dial back, and Edwards has fallen short of five assists just one time.
Some of that comes from his teammates simply hitting shots. While Edwards has shown fatigue in this most recent stretch, his teammates have shot 41.5% from deep.
The Timberwolves will make their shots. Edwards is passing the ball more while he regains some verve. This assists prop holds value as long as Over 5.5 includes plus-money odds.
Rockets vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 assists
Jalen Green Under 23.5 points
Timberwolves moneyline
While Edwards’s game has ebbed and flowed, one thing remains constant: The Timberwolves defense. It has given up 3-point attempts on just 36% of opponent field goals since March 1, fourth-lowest in the NBA. Houston needs those looks, taking 41.1% of its shots from beyond the arc in the same stretch.
No one in the Rockets’ rotation needs those looks more than Jalen Green, taking 9.5 threes per game since March 1. Going against Jaden McDaniels, those looks will not be available for Green.
And that drop should be enough to assure Minnesota a win.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rockets vs Timberwolves odds and trends
Rockets vs Timberwolves live odds
Rockets vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Houston +7.5 | Minnesota -7.5
- Moneyline: Houston +270 | Minnesota -357
- Over/Under: Over 216.5 | Under 216.5
Rockets vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened as high as -8.5 in Minnesota’s favor, ticking down to -7.5 on Tuesday morning. No known injuries have influenced that move, but the shared fatigue could shorten the game, lessening any expected edge.
- The total moved in the direction of fatigue’s impact, falling to 214 at some books early Tuesday afternoon despite opening at 217 on Monday evening.
- Minnesota has gone 8-4 against the spread since Towns’s injury, one of those losses in overtime as an underdog.
Rockets vs Timberwolves trend
The Timberwolves covered the spread in the first two meetings between these two and by an average of 18.25 points compared to expectations. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Timberwolves.
Rockets vs Timberwolves game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Tuesday, April 2, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North Extra, Space City Home Network |
Not intended for use in MA.
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