We’re in for a treat on Thursday night as the surging Houston Rockets head to the Bay Area to take on the Golden State Warriors in our last game of the evening.
The Warriors will be without both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green for this contest and my Rockets vs. Warriors predictions expect the offense to struggle.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks for Rockets vs Warriors on Thursday, December 5.
Rockets vs Warriors prediction
My best bet
Under 219 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s been a tough run for this Golden State Warriors offense, which currently sits just 25th in points per 100 possessions over the last two weeks and has leaned on a slightly better defense to keep games close despite the run of five losses.
Now, the absence of Stephen Curry can’t be understated here. The Warriors’ offensive rating falls by a ridiculous 17 points per 100 possessions with him off the floor, and that number has even increased marginally without Draymond Green. Defensively, however, it appears this team doesn’t miss nearly as much with these two on the bench and that’s a testament to the defensive acumen of Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis.
So, where does that leave Golden State? Well, this is a team that sits inside the top five in defending the rim and the arc, according to Cleaning the Glass, and even if there’s a slight decline in performance we can still expect them to hurt the Houston Rockets in these areas.
Houston’s offense continues to be missing in action, sitting 18th over the last two weeks and struggling all season long to score in every shooting zone. It’s taken the bulk of its shots at the rim, however, where Jackson-Davis should be able to shine as he steps into an increased role. With Fred VanVleet questionable, too, the Warriors could have an even better showing on that end of the floor.
The only issue here is that the Rockets have been elite at stopping rim scoring and ranking ninth against the 3, and nothing has changed in the last two weeks.
Without a clear way in against the Warriors on defense with 3-point shooting a big issue — a weakness that would be even more glaring if VanVleet doesn’t play, I expect a solid showing out of the home underdogs. I’m a bit curious as to how Golden State will score the ball, however, considering the Rockets have continued to do a bang-up job at the rim, and it’s worth noting that Andrew Wiggins is also questionable for this tilt.
With the pace coming down significantly without Curry and Green on the floor this season, I think the Under is the best play, even at this number.
Rockets vs Warriors same-game parlay
Under 219.5
Jonathan Kuminga Over 23.5 points + rebounds
Alperen Sengun Over 0.5 threes
The first leg here is very straightforward — Jonathan Kuminga is the man for the Warriors whenever both Curry and Green are off the court. He’s seen a stunning 5.56-point increase in Usage Rate, taking almost four more shots per 36 minutes to increase his scoring output by more than three points per 36, but his rebounding rate has also made a nice 1.68-point jump as well.
Kuminga has scored 19 points in two of his last three games and has begun to take on a large share of the minutes here for Golden State with 28 or more in two of his last three games, and did enjoy a nice outing against Houston earlier in the year with a season-high 23 points to go along with six rebounds.
The more exotic leg is on Sengun to hit a 3-pointer, but as we’ve covered there’s going to have to be someone to exploit Golden State’s issues in defending the arc without Curry and Green. Sengun has popped a 3 in three of his last four games, finally hitting last time out, and should be afforded plenty of space by a weak perimeter defender in Jackson-Davis.
Scoring at the rim should prove difficult, so I expect Alperen Sengun to let a couple rip from deep.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Rockets vs Warriors odds
Rockets vs Warriors live odds
Rockets vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Houston +3 | Golden State -3
- Moneyline: Houston +120 | Golden State -150
- Over/Under: Over 222.5 | Under 222.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Rockets vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- The line quickly flipped to set the Warriors as 2.5-point underdogs once the news regarding Curry came out, and since then there’s been only a slight move toward Houston by around one point.
- A slight 49% of the spread bets are on the Warriors to cover, with a bit more of the money (56%) coming in that way.
- The dove upon the Curry news, only to jolt back up by a couple of points twice before it came crashing back down on Thursday afternoon by three points, all the way to 219.
- The Over has accounted for 86% of the tickets and a lower 79% of the handle.
Rockets vs Warriors trend
The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+9.60 Units / 15% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Warriors.
How to watch Rockets vs Warriors
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-5-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Rockets vs Warriors latest injuries
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