It’s the De’Aaron Fox revenge game!
Fox will face off against his former team for the first time since being traded when the San Antonio Spurs visit the Sacramento Kings. But the grass isn’t always greener, as it’s the Kings who look like a play-in team.
My Spurs vs. Kings predictions highlight a player prop for this matchup and it's not for who you might think.
Check out my NBA picks for this Western Conference showdown which tips off at 10:00 pm ET on Friday, March 7, at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento.
Spurs vs Kings prediction
My best bet
Jonas Valanciunas Over 12.5 rebounds (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
De’Aaron Fox was fed up with the coaching turnover of the Sacramento Kings and requested a trade. The Kings obliged and sent Fox to be the running mate for Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs.
Fox must have been thrilled. A team with stability and a future in Wembanyama. But then the French phenom suffered a rare blood clot that will cost him the remainder of the season and it’s been a struggle for Fox and the Spurs since the All-Star break.
San Antonio is 2-5 straight up and against the spread in its last seven games overall, where Fox is averaging just 16.7 points while shooting an ugly 22.7% from 3-point range.
But that’s not the only problem when you lose a talent like Wembanyama. The Spurs are severely lacking a presence in the paint. Since the All-Star game San Antonio ranks 28th in both rebounding rate and opponent rebounds per game.
Meanwhile, things were looking dicey for the Kings. Trading away another franchise player and then Domantas Sabonis got hurt. Yet, Sacramento has won four of its last five games going 5-0 ATS in the process.
They’ve done that thanks to getting contributions all over the court from the likes of DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Keegan Murray. They also had the perfect contingency plan for a Sabonis injury in Jonas Valanciunas.
JV has stepped in and hasn’t skipped a beat averaging 16 points and 12 rebounds over the last three games. His points prop is sitting at 15.5 and his rebounds at 12.5. I think he has a good chance to eclipse both but I prefer the rebounds tonight.
For starters, we are getting plus money with it. Second, the Spurs play at a high pace and are taking a lot of shots these days. The fifth most over this seven-game period. But since they aren’t a great shooting team that means plenty of rebounds up for grabs.
Give me Valanciunas Over 12.5 rebounds, something he has done in two of his last three games.
Spurs vs Kings same-game parlay
Jonas Valanciunas Over 12.5 rebounds
Jonas Valanciunas Over 15.5 points
De'Aaron Fox Under 6.5 assists
Let’s keep it simple and add Jonas Valanciunas to go Over 15.5 points in this matchup as well. He’s put up 15 or more points three times in the last four games and is coming off a 19-point performance last time out against the Denver Nuggets. Tonight, he’ll face a Spurs team that is giving up the second-most points in the paint since coming out of the All-Star break.
Next up, De’Aaron Fox. I know it’s his revenge game but that’s baked into his point total which is sitting at 23.5 despite the fact he’s averaging 15 points and hasn’t topped 20 points in the last six games.
Instead, let’s take the revenge angle over to his assists. Expect Fox to get up some extra shots against the team that drafted him and not worry so much about dishing the ball to his teammates. So, let’s close this SGP out with Fox Under 6.5 assists. A number he’s played below in six of his last 10 games.
You can profit boost this SGP by 30% over at bet365.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Spurs vs Kings score prediction
Score prediction: Kings 117, Spurs 111
These teams are trending in opposite directions and on top of that, the Kings have been playing better at the defensive end of the floor allowing just 101.2 points per game over the last five games.
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Spurs vs Kings odds
Spurs vs Kings live odds
Spurs vs Kings opening odds
- Spread: San Antonio +5.5 | Sacramento -5.5
- Moneyline: San Antonio +185 | Sacramento -225
- Over/Under: Over 233.5 | Under 233.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Spurs vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Kings opened this Western Conference matchup as 5.5-point home favorites and bettors have liked what they've seen from the home team backing the Kings and moving the spread to 6.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- The Kings saw their four-game winning streak come to an end last time out but still managed to cover the spread. It was their fifth cover in a row. While the Spurs are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
- The total hit the board at 233.5 and was bet as high as 235 before returning to the opening number.
- The Kings have shown improved play on defense over the last five games, as a result, the Under has cashed in all five of those games.
Spurs vs Kings trend
The Kings have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 games +8.60 Units and a 11% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Kings.
How to watch Spurs vs Kings
| Location | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California |
| Date | Friday, 3-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KENS, NBCSCA, NBAC |
Spurs vs Kings latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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