The Kevin Durant-less Phoenix Suns continue their four-game road trip tonight in South Beach against the Miami Heat at the Kaseya Center.
My Suns vs Heat predictions like Tyler Herro to continue his career campaign with a big performance against a very average Phoenix defense.
Find out more in my NBA picks for Saturday, December 7.
Suns vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Tyler Herro Over 23.5 points (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Jimmy Butler hasn’t been the Miami Heat’s best player this season.
Instead, it’s Tyler Herro who is leading the charge. The guard is having a career year so far, averaging 24.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.9 assists while shooting 42.1% from 3-point range.
While Butler has missed a handful of games due to injury, Herro has played every single contest. He also owns a 27.8% usage rate, which is the highest on the roster.
The Kentucky product is coming off a huge 31-point performance in a blowout win over the Los Angeles Lakers and has hit the Over in points in three of his last five appearances.
The Phoenix Suns aren't exactly great defensively, ranking 20th in the Association. Most notably, the Suns allow opposing PGs to average 24.2 points per night. Herro is well rested and just balled out a few nights ago. I expect the 24-year-old to do his thing tonight.
Suns vs Heat same-game parlay
Tyler Herro Over 23.5 points
Bradley Beal Over 18.5 points
Bam Adebayo Oer 4.5 assists
It’s no secret Bradley Beal hasn’t been the same electric scorer in the desert as he was in his Washington Wizards days.
But, that’s understandable considering the top two options for the Suns are Durant and Devin Booker. That being said, KD is injured, which presents an opportunity for Beal to step up and produce more offensively.
Beal has played in 13 games, averaging 18 points on 38.5% shooting from downtown. Thursday’s loss to the lowly New Orleans Pelicans was his first chance to show his worth without Durant on the floor, and Beal did just that. He scored 24 points in 34 minutes of action.
Even though Beal has only hit the Over in points once in the last three, I believe he’s going to do his part here alongside Book.
Bam Adebayo is a severely underrated playmaker for a big man. Sure, maybe he’s not a Nikola Jokic-type passer, but virtually no one at that size is. Nevertheless, Bam has very impressive court vision for a center and it shows in his numbers.
The 27-year-old is averaging a career-best 5.0 dimes per contest right now. His total is set at just 4.5 tonight, and Adebayo has cashed the Over in seven consecutive games. The Suns allow the 10th-most dimes per game, too.
This bet is an absolute no-brainer given the trends.
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Suns vs Heat odds
Suns vs Heat live odds
Suns vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +6 (-110) | Miami -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +200 | Miami -245
- Over/Under: Over 219.5 (-110) | Under 219.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Suns vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Suns are just 8-13-0 against the spread. Miami isn’t much better, going 9-11-0 ATS
- The Under has cashed in three of the last four meetings
Suns vs Heat trend
The Suns have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 51 of their last 82 games (+15.85 Units / 17% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Heat.
How to watch Suns vs Heat
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-7-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FanDuel Sports Network - Sun, Arizona's Family 3TV / Arizona's Family Sports |
Suns vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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