Suns vs Lakers Picks and Predictions: LeBron Flips Playmaker Switch

The Phoenix Suns are benching their stars tonight with first-round home-court advantage already guaranteed.

That is welcome and needed news for the Los Angeles Lakers, still trying to claw their way to home court for just the play-in, though a chance at the No. 5 or No. 6 seeds does still exist for LeBron & Co. With the Suns depleted, where is the best value on the Lakers roster?

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Suns vs. the Lakers on April 7, with tip set for 10:30 ET.

Suns vs Lakers best odds

Suns vs Lakers picks and predictions

This game is too important for Los Angeles to take as lightly as Phoenix is. An L.A. Lakers loss would open the door for them to fall to the  No. 8 seed in the West, something this Timberwolves season-ticket holder is desperate for but already viewing as fantasy.

No disrespect to former Timberwolf Josh Okogie or any of the other Suns’ active players tonight (looking at you Torrey Craig, Bismack Biyombo, and Terrence Ross), but Los Angeles should cruise tonight with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton all benched. In fact, that odd Phoenix rotation should create opportunities for value on player props among those still playing.

In particular, Ross and Cameron Payne both have usage rates higher than 20% while playing about 14 minutes per game in the Suns’ last 10 games. Someone has to shoot the ball for Phoenix, and they are a pair likely to have the ball in their hands plenty tonight. Alas, sportsbooks are dragging their feet in listing Suns’ player props.

They have, however, listed a few Los Angeles player props and among them, LeBron James’ props. Since returning from his foot injury, LeBron has broken 20 points in only three of six games, though he has done in so in each of the last two.

He has not looked slow, but it is pretty widely understood he shortened his injury timeline to make this playoff push. Whatever “the LeBron James of feet” said, the NBA’s all-time leading scorer likely will need surgery this offseason.

If tonight is a chance for him to be a bit less aggressive — unlike needing overtime to scrap past Utah on Tuesday and losing to the Clippers on Wednesday — he should take that chance.

That is not to say LeBron will not play or not play plenty. Again, this game is too important, but it is saying he probably will not crack 20 field goal attempts, just as he did not in his first four games back from injury as he eased back into the stress on that foot.

That should lead to playmaking LeBron. He has already had 6+ assists in each of his last four games. On the season, he has had 7+ assists in 27 of 53 games. Playmaking LeBron should clear that easily tonight, but his assists prop has not geared up for that reality.

My best bet: LeBron James Over 6.5 assists (+100)

Suns vs Lakers spread analysis

It was always expected Phoenix would bench its best players on the second night of a back-to-back, no matter how much it disappoints Clippers, Warriors, and Timberwolves fans. The spread was north of -9 most of the day and jumped to -13 in the Lakers’ favor once it was confirmed the Suns would follow through with the load management.

It is hard to fault, given Phoenix is locked into the No. 4 spot, but it still lessens the intrigue on this Friday night.

It also becomes a difficult spread to handicap, but realize the Suns are not trotting out a G-League roster, even though T.J. Warren will also be out due to illness.

Frankly, tonight’s version of Phoenix would probably beat both teams showing up in Chicago. It will not be a deep team, but as long as Landry Shamet joins Ross and Payne for significant minutes, the Suns will have an NBA rotation-quality backcourt playing.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles does need some rest. D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Davis are also both beat up a bit. So if the Lakers build a comfortable lead, they may find the bench and a backdoor cover of this five-bucket spread may be quite possible.

Suns vs Lakers Over/Under analysis

The total fell with Phoenix’s benchings, opening at 228.5 early Friday and landing at 224.5 at most books.

That is understandable, given the absence of Durant and Booker. Furthermore, those thoughts of LeBron not being particularly aggressive and Russell and Davis needing to find the bench before too long could all build into a slow exhibition of a fourth quarter.

The backups will still want to play hard, reducing the chances of this looking like an All-Star game. Of the Suns playing tonight, only Shamet and Payne have contracts in Phoenix next season, and Payne’s is not even guaranteed.

This may be the last chance for these players to impress before their next contract. They will try to make the most of both ends of the court.

Suns vs Lakers betting trend to know

The Over is 6-o in the Lakers' last six games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Lakers.

Suns vs Lakers game info

Suns vs Lakers key injuries

Pages related to this topic