The Phoenix Suns head to the nation's capital on Thursday night to face off against the Washington Wizards.
Washington has the worst defense in the NBA, and my Suns vs. Wizards predictions are betting on Devin Booker taking full advantage. Here are my best free NBA picks for this showdown on January 16.
Suns vs Wizards prediction
My best bet
Devin Booker Over 27.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Phoenix Suns are coming off a game against Atlanta where they came up short despite 31 points from Kevin Durant and 35 points from Devin Booker. Bradley Beal is listed as doubtful for tonight while center Jusuf Nurkic has been ruled out, which should mean another high-volume shooting game for Booker.
Booker has taken at least 20 field goal attempts in five straight games, and he went 0-for-8 from deep in the one contest where he scored fewer than 30 points during that span. Booker actually shoots better from long range on the road (39.5% 3PT%) than at home (30.3%) so don't expect another cold-shooting performance tonight.
The Washington Wizards play at the fourth-fastest pace in the NBA and are dead-last in defensive rating. They've allowed a league-worst 122.6 points per game, with that number ticking up to 124.9 ppg over their last 10 contests.
The Wizards are 29th in 3-pointers allowed per game (14.7) and 27th in opponent free-throw rate. That's bad news against Booker, who attempts 7.9 threes per game and is in the Top 20th percentile in free-throw rate. Taking the Over 27.5 points for Booker looks like a no-brainer in this juicy matchup.
Suns vs Wizards same-game parlay
Devin Booker Over 27.5 points
Kevin Durant Over 6.5 rebounds
Carlton Carrington Over 4.5 assists
Add rebounding to the long list of things that Washington is terrible at. The Wizards are last in the league in rebounding rate (47.8%), and that combined with a fast tempo leads to plenty of rebounds for opponents. With Nurkic ruled out, Durant will have more opportunities on the glass, and he has grabbed eight boards in back-to-back games.
I mentioned how bad Washington's defense has been, but Phoenix has also struggled on that end of the floor, ranking 22nd in defensive rating. That will benefit Wizards rookie guard Carlton Carrington, who has dropped 5+ dimes in seven of his last 10 games and is averaging 32.7 mpg over that span.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Suns vs Wizards odds
Suns vs Wizards live odds
Suns vs Wizards opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix -11 | Washington +11
- Moneyline: Phoenix -600 | Washington +450
- Over/Under: Over 232.5 | Under 232.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Suns vs Wizards spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Wizards have the worst record in the NBA at 6-32 and have gone 14-23-1 against the spread
- The Suns are 5-9 in their last 14 games and have gone a league-worst 13-25-1 ATS this season.
- The Suns are 0-3 ATS when favored by double-digits while Washington is 8-14-1 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points.
- The Wizards have gone just 1-15 at home with an average scoring margin of -12.8 ppg.
Suns vs Wizards trend
The first half Over has cashed in 20 of the Suns last 29 games (+9.5 Units / 28% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Wizards.
How to watch Suns vs Wizards
| Location: | Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C. |
| Date: | Thursday, 1-16-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KTVK, MNMT2 |
Suns vs Wizards latest injuries
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