Thunder vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: OKC Wiped Out in Wisconsin

Two teams at opposite ends of the NBA hierarchy will meet on Friday night, as the tank-embracing Oklahoma City Thunder visit the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks.

While just a single win separates the 6-8 Thunder and 7-8 Bucks, the pair exist in separate realms within the NBA. Oklahoma City's intention on a night-to-night basis is player development and little else, while Milwaukee is hunting for continued Eastern Conference supremacy and another title.

Will the massive gap between these two play out on Friday? Find out with our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Bucks. 

Thunder vs Bucks odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The line in Milwaukee opened between Bucks -12.5 and -13.5, depending on the book. The total hit the board at 214.5, which is where it remains as of Thursday night. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Thunder vs Bucks predictions

• Prediction: Bucks -13 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 214.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Lu Dort Over 2.5 3-pointers made (+158)

Predictions made on 11/18/2021 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Thunder vs Bucks game info

• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Friday, November 19, 2021
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Oklahoma, Bally Sports Wisconsin

Thunder vs Bucks betting preview

Injuries

Thunder: Tre Mann PG (Questionable).
Bucks: Brook Lopez C (Out), Donte DiVincenzo SG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 8-1 in the Thunder's previous nine games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Bucks.

Thunder vs Bucks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

As mentioned, these two are separated by just a single win, but their records are not quite created equally. 

The Thunder's wins haven't been exactly banner moments. Two came against the LeBron-less Lakers, with Russell Westbrook leading the Thunder to victory for old time's sake (27- and 28-point efforts from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander helped, too). One came against the four-win Spurs, when a 20-point outburst from Mike Muscala on 83 percent shooting in 14 minutes led OKC in scoring. Then the Thunder knocked off the two-win, Brandon Ingram-less Pelicans, the Kings, and the Rockets, who make the Thunder look like the mid-90s Bulls.

The Bucks, meanwhile, have dealt with injuries in the frontcourt, backcourt, and on the wing. Jrue Holiday suffered a heel injury on opening night that kept him out for seven games and he has struggled since returning. Crucial three and D wing Donte DiVincenzo remains out with the foot injury that ended his postseason. Khris Middleton missed eight games due to COVID, Brook Lopez's back issues have limited him to one game, and Bobby Portis missed five games.

While Milwaukee has gotten solid play from Grayson Allen, George Hill, and Jordan Nwora, among others, there's only so much you can expect from a team forced to start Pat Connaughton at the four and give real minutes to Thanasis Antetokounmpo due to constant lineup juggling. 

This spread is giving the Bucks considerable credit but it isn't off base. When the Bucks have won this year, they've won handily with an average margin of victory of 14.1 points. That figure is hardly skewed by a couple of lopsided wins, either, as their two most narrow wins have been by nine and seven points.

The Thunder, meanwhile, have been feisty in some games but otherwise lose big. OKC's average margin of defeat has been 17.1 points and it has only kept it within single digits twice. The Thunder may press Milwaukee early but by the end of 48 minutes, the Bucks will have cruised to victory. 

Prediction: Bucks -13 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

These teams have played to a combined 7-22 O/U mark in 2021, including 3-13 so far in November. 

The Bucks have struggled on offense and rank just 15th in offensive rating. They have failed to hit 100 points five times this year, after doing so four times all of last season. The in-and-out nature of their lineup thus far has played a major part in their struggles.

Losing Holiday on opening night had an obvious impact and even since returning, he has been rusty. His effective field goal percentage is the lowest of his career, and he is turning the ball over nearly one more time per game than last season. Lopez has played just one game, with his absence wreaking havoc on Milwaukee's spacing. And to top it off, Middleton missed eight games due to COVID.

Then there's the Thunder who, despite the best intentions of rising star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dorture Chamber overseer Lu Dort, are barely able to field an NBA offense. OKC ranks 29th in offensive rating and has turned the keys fully over to youth, with a starting five boasting an average age of 21.2. It's the right move for the future, which is the only thing of importance to the Thunder, but it will only lead to further offensive woes over the remainder of the season. 

While both teams are struggling offensively, the Thunder have been strong defensively, ranking 13th in the defensive rating. That's even greater reason to back the Under here, as the offense more likely to explode in a given night — the Bucks — will meet greater resistance.  

Prediction: Under 214.5 (-110)

Best bet

Three and D extraordinaire Lu Dort hoisted 6.3 3-point attempts per game a year ago, more than doubling his rookie year average of 2.8. He made them at a greater clip, too, connecting on 34 percent of his attempts from long range.

Dort's volume as a shooter has continued to grow in 2021-22, with the Canadian taking a team-high 6.8 3-pointers per game so far this season and making 29 percent. Those numbers are weighed down by some early-season struggles, however. The first six games of the season saw Dort make just seven of 31 attempts (23%), while over his last seven games he's taking 8.3 per game and hitting on 32 percent of attempts from beyond the arc.

Dort will have plenty of opportunities to continue his high-volume approach from deep on Friday. Since Mike Budenholzer took over as head coach, the Bucks have been among a handful of teams that, despite boasting great defenses, have happily conceded the 3-ball at a high rate. Milwaukee's allowing the eighth-most 3-point attempts per game this season, after allowing the fourth-most last season and the most in both 2019-20 and 18-19.

Though he certainly has room to improve, Dort is, most likely, accurately represented as somewhere between a 32 and 34 percent 3-point shooter at this stage in his career. At the volume he has had over the last seven games, which he will certainly be able to maintain against Milwaukee, that would put him just Over 2.5 makes per game. Dort's 3-point prop is at O/U 1.5 at most books but FanDuel is offering +158 on Over 2.5 makes, which is great value in this matchup.  

Pick: Lu Dort Over 2.5 3-pointers made (+158)

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