The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks face off in Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals this afternoon. The Thunder dominantly took the series opener but the Mavs stole the next contest on the road and head home with the series tied up at one game apiece.
However, my Thunder vs. Mavs prediction doesn't see that momentum carrying over for Dallas. Here's my NBA picks for Saturday, May 11.
Thunder vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Thunder moneyline (+125 at bet365)
My analysis
The Oklahoma City Thunder destroyed the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of this series, winning by 22 points. While the Mavericks bounced back with a 119-110 win in Game 2 on Thursday, I don't see them replicating that success here.
Keep in mind that the Mavs went 18-for-37 (48.6%) from deep in that contest but entered that game with a middling 36.7 3PT%, and the Thunder are typically much better at defending threes. OKC had several defensive lapses in that game, which was surprising for a team that finished the regular fourth in the NBA in defensive rating and has been the highest-rated defensive team in the playoffs.
However, given their length, quickness, and usual defensive tenacity, I expect them to be much better on that end of the floor tonight. That's the biggest difference between these squads because while the Mavs have an efficient offense they were just 18th in the league in defensive rating during the regular season.
Luka Doncic is an elite offensive player who racks up triple-doubles, but he's a poor defender and his supporting cast isn't as well-rounded as the guys surrounding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Oklahoma City is weak on the boards, sitting 28th in the league in rebound rate, but the Mavs were just two spots above them, so they aren't strong enough inside to take advantage of that flaw. Defense tends to win games in the playoffs, and I'll back the far better defensive squad to bounce back with a win at plus money here.
Thunder vs Mavericks same-game parlay (SGP)
Thunder moneyline
P.J. Washington Over 6.5 rebounds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 2.5 turnovers
P.J. Washington had a career performance in Game 2, scoring 29 points and going 7-for-11 from beyond the arc. While I expect major regression when it comes to his shooting, I do expect him to get another heavy workload, which should lead to him going Over his rebounds prop.
Washington pulled down 11 boards in 40 minutes in that game after having six boards in just 26 minutes in the series opener. He averaged 35.3 minutes per game in the first round, so Game 1 of this series was clearly an outlier, and as long as doesn't get into foul trouble, he should snag plenty of boards against an OKC side that doesn't rebound well.
Despite having one of the highest usage rates in the NBA, Gilgeous-Alexander does a great job of taking care of the ball and Dallas doesn't force many turnovers. SGA has posted fewer than 2.5 turnovers in 21 of 31 games since the All-Star break, and he has also gone below this number in five of six contests against the Mavs this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Thunder vs Mavericks odds
Thunder vs Mavericks live odds
Get the latest Thunder vs Mavericks NBA playoff odds for Game 3.
Thunder vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City +3 | Dallas -3
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City +125 | Dallas -150
- Over/Under: Over 219 | Under 219
Thunder vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- There hasn't been much movement on the spread, but the total has ticked down from 219 to 218.
- Before losing on Thursday, the Thunder had won 10 games in a row, going 8-2 ATS during that span.
- Since March 6, the Mavericks have gone 21-7 SU and ATS.
- The Thunder were second in the league in net rating during the regular season (+7.3) and have the best net rating in the playoffs (+13.2).
Thunder vs Mavericks trend
The Thunder are 17-8 SU after a loss this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Mavericks.
Thunder vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Arena, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-11-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Thunder vs Mavericks latest injuries
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