The Oklahoma City Thunder may sound adamant that they’re still exploring their ceiling, but they’ve clearly arrived as a title contender. They’ll look to pad their record in this afternoon’s battle with the dismal Detroit Pistons as double-digit favorites in the NBA odds.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander top-scored yet again for the Thunder as they saw off the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday for their fifth straight win, and they start the day in top spot in the West.
Meanwhile, it’s very much in play for the Pistons to lose 70 games this season, and they hit another low point with yesterday’s 118-104 setback against the Washington Wizards.
Get a closer look at today’s matchup with my free NBA picks for Thunder vs. Pistons on Sunday, January 28.
Thunder vs Pistons odds
Thunder vs Pistons predictions
The Detroit Pistons’ miserable slide can actually be traced back to their meeting with the Oklahoma City Thunder in late October. Detroit was off to a 2-1 start but lost that night and didn’t win again until December 30.
These teams’ prospects couldn’t be more different. The Thunder have an embarrassment of riches with young stars and a treasure chest of draft picks, while the Pistons’ path back to relevance remains unclear.
In many ways, you would have a hard time making this spread big enough to get me excited about picking a Detroit team that’s trudged from one nightmare performance to the next this year. So I’m taking Oklahoma City and laying the 13.5 points without hesitation. It’s a line that could even be a little higher, with the hosts having a quick turnaround after the loss to Washington yesterday.
The Thunder’s 15-8 road record is No. 1 in the NBA, and they’ve been ATS monsters all season too, covering the spread in 30 of their 45 games. That’s just another reason why the big spread isn’t scaring me off.
Only the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks are scoring more points per game than the Thunder, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren should all feast against a Detroit defense that’s allowing 122.5 points a night.
Plus, this isn’t exactly the big game of the day for Detroit sports fans, so I’m expecting a subdued crowd at Little Caesars Arena.
The visitors have shown no mercy against the league’s weaker teams — see their 139-77 rout of the Portland Trail Blazers earlier this month — and I see them cruising to another blowout win here.
My best bet: Thunder -13.5 (+105 at PROLINE+)
Thunder vs Pistons same-game parlay
Thunder -13.5
Under 237.5
I’m also taking the Under to turn this into a two-leg bet. It’s hard to see Detroit keeping pace with a potent Oklahoma City offense, even with Cade Cunningham back in the lineup, and the Thunder have quietly held opponents under 110 points in three of their last four outings.
Three of the last four meetings between these teams have cashed the Under, and I expect the Pistons to be more engaged at both ends after Monty Williams said they “lacked poise and execution” against the Wizards.
Even with the Thunder sitting second in the league in field goal percentage and first in free-throw percentage, the 237.5 line just feels like too many points here. Most of all, I don’t have faith in an erratic Detroit offense getting to 110+ points.
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Thunder vs Pistons spread and Over/Under analysis
Oklahoma City is the obvious favorite here and it had to be a double-digit line with the way both teams are playing. The visitors have won five straight and nine of their last 11 contests, while Detroit’s 5-40 record says it all.
This is set up for another Gilgeous-Alexander masterclass. SGA was named as a Western Conference All-Star starter this week, and he shouldn’t find much resistance on the perimeter against the Pistons. Look for him to get past the 30-point mark for the sixth straight game.
Afternoon tip-offs can be funky, but I’ve already picked the Under and there’s a strong numbers case here. That’s been a winning ticket in three of the Thunder’s last four games as well as the past three outings for Detroit.
Though SGA & Co. should be able to score at will today, there’s real blowout potential, with garbage time then dragging the total towards the Under.
Thunder vs Pistons betting trend to know
These are bleak times for the Pistons, and they’ve only led at halftime in 17 of their last 74 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pistons.
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Thunder vs Pistons game info
| Location: | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, January 28, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Detroit, Bally Oklahoma |
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