The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to continue their dominance of the Western Conference when they head to Frost Bank Center to take on the lowly San Antonio Spurs.
While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to put up huge numbers for OKC, San Antonio will be without star center Victor Wembanyama for the remainder of the season.
Gilgeous-Alexander has been especially dangerous in the first quarter, which is part of why I’m expecting the visitors to get off to a quick start in my Thunder vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, March 2.
Thunder vs Spurs prediction
My best bet
Thunder -4.5 1Q (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Oklahoma City Thunder opened as a massive 13.5-point favorite for this game, and a big part of that edge comes down to their dominance in the first quarter. I’ll be looking for the visitors to cover the 1Q spread for my best bet tonight.
OKC is +4.7 in the opening frame this season, tied with the Cleveland Cavaliers for the best margin among all teams. Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs rank 22nd at -1.2.
The Thunder have averaged 30.8 points in the opening quarter, the fourth-best mark in the league, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The point guard leads all players with an average of 9.7 points in the first frame.
On the flipside, Oklahoma City also owns the best first quarter defense in the league at just 26.1 opponent points per game.
With Victor Wembanyama sidelined for the rest of the year with a shoulder injury, the already-struggling Spurs are looking even worse. San Antonio has scored just 110.8 ppg since the All-Star break while leading scorer De’Aaron Fox is averaging less than 20 ppg since he was acquired from the Sacramento Kings last month.
Thunder vs Spurs same-game parlay
Thunder -4.5 1Q
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points
Spurs team total Under 111.5
Gilgeous-Alexander has cooled off slightly since the start of February with a “modest” 31.7 ppg, but the Canadian star has still dropped 30+ points in three of his last four and six of his last nine contests.
The Spurs somehow scored 130 against the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday but have been Under 111.5 points in four of their last five games. The Thunder own the NBA’s second-best defense this season (106.2 papg) so I don’t see the Spurs putting up a big number without Wemby.
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Thunder vs Spurs odds
Thunder vs Spurs live odds
Thunder vs Spurs opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -13.5 | San Antonio +13.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -837 | San Antonio +590
- Over/Under: Over 237 | Under 237
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder opened at -13.5 and have covered the spread in 60.7% of their games this season, second to only the Cavs (67.2%) for the highest mark in the NBA.
- OKC is 7-2 in its last nine meetings against San Antonio and 7-3 ATS in the last 10.
- The total opened at 237 points but betting has pushed the line down towards 236 ahead of tipoff.
- The Under is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the teams.
Thunder vs Spurs trend
The Thunder have hit the team total Over in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.05 Units / 28% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Spurs.
How to watch Thunder vs Spurs
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Sunday, 3-2-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Thunder vs Spurs latest injuries
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