Timberwolves vs Kings Picks and Predictions: Towns and T-Wolves Make It Two

The Sacramento Kings are likely to be shorthanded again in the second night of a back-to-back against the surging Minnesota Timberwolves. To be clear, the entire back-to-back features these two teams, which makes last night’s blowout a very pertinent data point.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Timberwolves at the Kings on February 9, with tip set for 10:00 ET.

Timberwolves vs Kings odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

After the Timberwolves won by 20 late Tuesday night, the rematch opened with them favored by 9.0 early Wednesday morning. That has toggled back and forth with -9.5 throughout the day. The total opened at 232.5 after that 134-114 rout, gradually moving to 235.5 by early Wednesday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Timberwolves vs Kings predictions

• Prediction: Timberwolves -9.0 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 235.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Towns Over 1.5 threes (-118)

Predictions made on 2/9/2022 at 2:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Timberwolves vs Kings game info

• Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
• Date: Wednesday, February 9, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCSCA, BSN

Timberwolves vs Kings betting preview

Key injuries

Timberwolves: No injuries to report.
Kings: Richaun Holmes PF (Questionable), Marvin Bagley PF (Out), Terence Davis II SG (Out), Domantas Sabonis PF (Questionable), Justin Holiday (Questionable), Jeremy Lamb (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in their last five games. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Kings.

Timberwolves vs Kings picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Nothing about Tuesday’s rout indicated the Kings, as currently constructed, can keep up with the Timberwolves, but the key in these odd back-to-back rematches is to not overreact. To get the truest sense of what was expected in this series, go back 24 hours, to just before Sacramento traded Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and Tristan Thompson to the Pacers. The Kings were 5.0-point underdogs in the first game of this double-header, and that line moved up to +7.5 after the trade. Obviously, Minnesota had no trouble covering that spread.

In a vacuum, a line jumping another 1.5 points with no other changes would look like an overreaction, but in this exact situation, it comes across more as the books properly recognizing the losses of Haliburton and Hield, particularly with Sacramento’s frontcourt also hobbled. Bookmakers did not give those losses enough credit on Tuesday, hence today’s extra point-and-a-half. And that larger spread somewhat confirms what is widely expected: that the incoming pieces of that trade — Domantas Sabonis, Justin Holiday and Jeremy Lamb — will be unavailable tonight, even if they arrived in Sacramento last night, per Kings head coach Alvin Gentry.

But even a number this lofty is within Minnesota’s reach. The Timberwolves have covered as at least 7.5-point favorites in each of their last three games, part of beating the spread in each of their last five games, favored in all five.

That has been the change in Minnesota that fans are still adjusting to, much to D’Angelo Russell’s public chagrin this week. The Timberwolves have spent nearly two decades falling short in games they should win. Exceeding expectations is a foreign experience for longstanding fans. Though this game is not in Minnesota, that reality may be enough of a motivation for the Timberwolves to continue to impress, even as nearly double-digit favorites.

Prediction: Timberwolves -9.0 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

This number hardly moved after last night’s offensive explosion, one that saw 140 points in the first half alone. Eventually, fatigue and the relaxed nature of a blowout slowed things down, the two combining for only 108 points in the second half.

The Over/Under last night was 235.0, right in line with tonight’s. Raising it because the Timberwolves hit 50 percent of their threes would be an overreaction. They shot better from distance than from inside the arc, something rather unlikely to occur again tonight.

Minnesota has been preaching defense of late, but giving up 67 points in a half to a shorthanded and woeful Sacramento was not in line with head coach Chris Finch’s wants. If anything, the Timberwolves may sacrifice some offensive efficiency tonight to restore some of that defensive verve.

Furthermore, without those new players, the Kings will wear out quickly. Chimezie Metu played 34 minutes last night, while center Damion Jones added 29. With Holmes and Bagley out — and still questionable — Metu and Jones were the crux of Sacramento’s interior depth. They average 22.4 and 15.6 minutes per game, respectively. Expecting them to put in extensive work tonight would be a mistake.

Prediction: Under 235.5 (-110)

Best bet

When beginning this handicap, the intention was to snag an Over on Malik Beasley’s points or 3-pointers tonight, given he has found his groove of late, hitting 53.2 percent of his threes in the last six games while taking 7.8 per game. This is the marksman Minnesota traded for in 2020, not the one who was hitting 36.9 percent of his threes before this stretch while taking 8.4 per game.

But Beasley props are not widely available on the market yet. Karl-Anthony Town props are, however, and in them, bookmakers continue to make a mistake.

Towns has hit at least a pair of threes in seven of his last nine games and 10 of his last 15. Want that sample size to go further back? So be it. He has hit at least a pair of threes in 13 of his last 21 games and, across the whole season, in 31 of 47 games.

Yet that Over/Under is still priced at relatively even odds.

This prop should be taken until bookmakers raise the mark to at least 2.0, especially when facing a short-handed team with no reliable big-man defenders. Towns is just as liable to exploit Metu or Jones, or even Holmes or Bagley, on the perimeter as he is on the inside. With his debut in the Three-Point Contest less than two weeks away, Towns may even chuck a few extra from deep.

Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 3PMs (-118)

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