The Brooklyn Nets have been struggling of late, notable after they started the season flirting with a top-six playoff position in the East. Since Dec. 13, the Nets have fallen from the No. 7 seed to No. 11.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves remain near the top of the Western Conference, currently tied with the Thunder in win percentage. But on the second night of a back-to-back, the Timberwolves may need to slow things down, even as the favorite in the NBA odds.
That thought sparks the found value in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview Timberwolves vs. Nets on Thursday, January 25.
Timberwolves vs Nets odds
Timberwolves vs Nets predictions
The Minnesota Timberwolves still hold the best defensive rating in the NBA by 1.5 points per 100 possessions, greater than the distance between No. 2 (the Celtics) and No. 6 (the Magic). After Monday night’s debacle of a defensive showing cost them a victory despite Karl-Anthony Towns scoring 62 points, the Timberwolves focused for spurts last night against the Wizards, keeping Washington a bucket below its team total.
That defensive showing was inconsistent, though, not cementing a fix after Monday. The Wizards scored 59 first-half points, taking a lead into the break. That lapse should have been enough to continue an emphasis on redeeming Minnesota’s defensive reputation.
If that is the emphasis, then the Timberwolves likely will slow down this game with the Brooklyn Nets. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, but it’s the third game in four nights for Minnesota.
Slowing the tempo against the Nets should fit right into the Timberwolves’ defensive preferences. Brooklyn likes to shoot from deep, taking 41.7% of its field goals from beyond the arc, No. 7 in the league, but it makes only 36.3% of those 3s.
The Timberwolves give up a stingy 35.2% from deep and, more notably, prevent many 3s from being shot. Just 37.3% of opponents’ shots are from deep, No. 6 in the NBA. Defenders like Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are able to play aggressively on the perimeter and trust Rudy Gobert to have their backs. That chases opponents off the arc, something that will bog down the Nets’ offense.
A tired team with a defensive focus that fits well against this particular opponent should set up a strong approach to an Under tonight at Barclays Center.
My best bet: Under 217.5 (-112 at BetRivers)
Timberwolves vs Nets same-game parlay
Under 217
Dorian Finney-Smith Under 1.5 threes
Rudy Gobert Over 14.5 points
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If Minnesota successfully runs Brooklyn off the 3-point line tonight, no one will be more grateful than Dorian Finney-Smith. The forward has gone 3-for-25 from deep in his last six games, not hitting multiple 3s in any of them.
At some point, that may become a case of the yips, particularly as certain Nets try to showcase themselves before the trade deadline with Brooklyn looking increasingly like a seller.
Slowing down the game will allow the Timberwolves defense to set itself, which will make Finney-Smith’s life even more miserable. And slowing down the game will force Minnesota into its half-court offense more often, something that plays to Gobert’s advantage.
After Towns’ explosion on Monday, Gobert was featured a bit on Wednesday, making 7 of 11 shots for 19 points. That was not by coincidence. The Timberwolves’ best habits feature the defensive power, leaning on him on one end and rewarding him on the other.
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Timberwolves vs Nets spread and Over/Under analysis
Before Minnesota got by Washington, sportsbooks opened this game with the Timberwolves favored by 4.5 points. That ticked down to -3.5 on Thursday morning, more likely a worry that point guard Mike Conley might miss his third game in a row than a reaction to Wednesday night.
If Conley is indeed out, doubting Minnesota early will make sense, especially since it is 1-3 against the spread in the first half of the second night of back-to-backs this season.
The total moved more notably after Wednesday, opening before that game at 219.5 and then falling all the way to 217 before the end of the night. Chalk that up to the clear renewed defensive focus from the Timberwolves in the second half at Washington.
Timberwolves vs Nets betting trend to know
After starting the season 17-5-1 against the spread, Brooklyn has gone 3-16-1 ATS since Dec. 14. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Nets.
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Timberwolves vs Nets game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, January 25, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North Extra, YES |
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