Timberwolves vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Cloudy With a Chance of Threes

True must-wins are rare in the NBA, but tonight’s trip to Denver may be just that for Minnesota if it wants to avoid the play-in tournament. The Timberwolves are three games behind the Nuggets in the loss column, but with the tiebreaker going Minnesota’s way, a win tonight would keep their hopes alive, while a loss would condemn the Timberwolves to hosting the Clippers in two weeks.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Timberwolves vs the Nuggets on Friday, April 1.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Nuggets opened as 4.5-point favorites on Thursday afternoon, but once early Friday morning hit, that line began to tick downward, reaching -2.5 by 9 a.m. ET and then toggling back and forth between -2.5 and -3.0 throughout Friday. 

The total hit the boards Thursday at 233.5 and remained steady into Friday’s earliest hours, at which point it spiked. The total reached 239.0 in the early morning and climbed as high as 242.5 as of writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets predictions

• Prediction: Timberwolves +3.0 (-104)
• Prediction: Under 242.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Timberwolves ML +132

Predictions made on 4/1/2022 at 3:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets game info

• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Date: Friday, April 1, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Altitude, Bally Sports North

Timberwolves vs Nuggets betting preview

Key injuries

Timberwolves: Malik Beasley SG (Out), Jaden McDaniels SF (Out).
Nuggets: JaMychal Green PF (Questionable), Michael Porter Jr. PF (Out), Jamal Murray (Out), Zeke Nnaji PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games, including 1-5 ATS as a home favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

These two franchises — namely their franchise cornerstones at center — know what it is like to face each other with massive stakes on the line. In a very real way, they staged the first play-in game in 2018, a win-or-go-home season finale that made it clear to the NBA that the format would be profitable. The Timberwolves won then, a result the Nuggets have long pointed to as a needed catalyst.

Their matchups since then have often had the same drama for a night, if not the same stakes. And since that play-in game, Denver has clearly been the more successful team, also reflected in this head-to-head matchup. The Nuggets won the next 12 games between these two, all the way up through this past October.

And then something finally switched. Minnesota won the last two meetings this season, both by double-digits. The Timberwolves shot 45.2% from deep in those two games, taking 93 total 3-point attempts. That’s hard for anyone to beat, but especially hard for Denver when it responded by shooting 33.7% from deep, hitting only 14 threes in each game, 14 behind Minnesota’s combined tally.

Those numbers were obviously ahead of the Timberwolves’ usual shooting, taking 41.3 shots from beyond the arc per game this season and hitting 35.5% of them. But the sample size of 93 attempts is not so small as to be dismissed. It would seem Minnesota may have found something it can exploit against the Nuggets’ defense.

Instinct suggests that is a trend to fade while the Timberwolves are without sharpshooter Malik Beasley, but the former Nugget went only 4-of-10 in those two games. He was not the piece that catapulted Minnesota past Denver. Those were Anthony Edwards (10-for-14 in the first Timberwolves victory) and Taurean Prince (6-for-9 in the second). And despite one misguided April Fool’s tweet today, both those options will be on the court tonight.

Minnesota is going to chuck from deep tonight, and it will not be the only franchise to do so with success against the Nuggets lately. Five of Denver’s last 10 opponents hit at least 40% of their shots from deep, including an absurd 16-of-32 from the Clippers. 

But the Timberwolves are going to chuck from deep more than any of them. If Minnesota attempts only its season average of 41 threes tonight, that will be the most the Nuggets have defended since March 2. The Thunder shot a woeful 26.1 percent that night. Assuming Minnesota fares better than that, it should cover this spread tonight. Hitting three more 3s than Oklahoma City did would be the difference needed compared to that 12-point Denver win.

Prediction: Timberwolves +3.0 (-110 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Suggesting the underdog is going to heave from deep accurately and often should be a recipe for an Over, but this Friday spike of nine points is too much to not fade. For that matter, one of this season’s Timberwolves victories against the Nuggets would have come in well Under this total, despite Minnesota’s propensity from deep. The other would have gone Over by only 2.5 points.

Furthermore, this game is as close to a playoff game as can be conjured in the regular season. For the Timberwolves, it may as well be an elimination game. Lose and they are in the play-in. Win and the dream of the No. 6 seed can live for a few more days.

Playoff games slow down. Opponents know each other well, specifically Karl-Anthony Towns and Nikola Joki?. These two teams might display some flawed defense, hence this inflated total, but having faced each other six times in the last 15 months, familiarity can yield defensive improvements.

Prediction: Under 242.5 (-110 at bet365)

Best bet

This Timberwolves fan of a handicapper actually has very little faith in Minnesota winning tonight, but recognizing that as the pessimism inherent to a cynical fan is necessary. The reality is, this spread fell by nearly half on Friday, and that is because a pseudo-playoff game should come down to the closing minutes.

No matter how excellent Joki? is and has been, he is a one-man show this season, moments of Bones Hyland highlights aside. The Timberwolves have multiple offensive weapons capable of creating their own shot in a massive moment.

That edge is enough justification to ignore the spread and try for the value of a positive money line. That thinking may run counter to the emotions of a fan, but fans overreact, fans hold grudges, and fans get handicaps wrong.

This is a bet with logic, not with emotion. The emotion expects a Denver blowout. Logic sees value in a close Minnesota victory.

Pick: Timberwolves money line (+125 at Betway)

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