Timberwolves vs Rockets Picks and Predictions: Minnesota's Defense Continues to Hunt

The Minnesota Timberwolves have won three straight and will look to get back to .500 ahead of the midway point of the season when they face the lowly Houston Rockets on Sunday in Texas.

Minnesota had to navigate the previous three weeks with a juggled roster but is near full strength now. Houston, meanwhile, just snapped an eight-game losing skid and has dropped nine of 10 as it has reverted to its losing ways after a brief hot stretch.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Timberwolves vs. Rockets, with tipoff on January 9.

Timberwolves vs Rockets odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Timberwolves opened as 5-point favorites for Sunday's meeting with the Rockets in Houston. The total hit the board between 228.5 and 229, depending on the book.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Timberwolves vs Rockets predictions

• Prediction: Timberwolves -5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 229 (-110)
• Best bet: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 9.5 rebounds (-115)

Predictions made on 1/8/2022 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Timberwolves vs Rockets game info

• Location: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
• Date: Sunday, January 9, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet SW, Bally Sports North

Timberwolves vs Rockets betting preview

Injuries

Timberwolves: Patrick Beverley G (Questionable), Leandro Bolmaro SF (Out), McKinley Wright IV PG (Out).
Rockets: Garrison Matthews SG (Questionable), Usman Garuba PF (Out), Alperen Sengun C (Out), DJ Augustin PG (Out), John Wall PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Rockets.

Timberwolves vs Rockets picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

After spending three weeks juggling their lineup and 10-day contracts after every starter worked their way in and out of health and safety protocols, the Timberwolves are back to full strength. That's welcome news for a team fighting for the playoffs in a wide-open Western Conference — and one that landed on the league's best starting five, in terms of net rating, in the NBA.

That's right, your Minnesota Timberwolves boast far-and-away the league's top five-man unit in net rating (minimum 100 minutes), with D'Angelo Russell, Patrick Beverley, Anthony Edwards, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Karl-Anthony Towns a +50.5 in 142 minutes together this season. That's a wildly high and unsustainable mark but one that leaves plenty of room for regression, with a five-man unit of the Hawks trailing Minnesota at +34.8 in 144 minutes. 

Minnesota has shortcomings, no doubt. A lack of size has been exploited on a number of occasions, its half-court offense leaves so much to be desired, and the roster's shooters have been ice-cold since game one. Yet the Wolves are in the mix for a top-six spot in the conference and well above .500 when they have their full complement of players as they do now (provided Beverley returns from a groin injury called day-to-day). 

That reality is a stark contrast to Minnesota's typical reality but it's also a stark contrast to Houston's current situation. The Rockets spent a brief moment of the season as a competitive NBA team but that moment is gone, leaving through the same door Jalen Green returned through. Prioritizing Green's development is the correct move but with the second overall pick in the lineup this year, the Rockets have rarely been able to even push mediocre teams. 

In the 25 games Green has played in this year, Houston is 3-22 with an average scoring margin of -10.84. For comparison, in the 15 games the Rockets have played without Green, they're 8-7, reeled off a six-game win streak immediately after Green's injury, and have an average scoring margin of -4.4. 

The Wolves are a competitive team at their best, with a full roster available and the ability to roll out the league's most effective five-man unit. The Rockets, on the other hand, are once again held hostage by Green's development and painfully uncompetitive. 

Prediction: Timberwolves -5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

There's only one above-average unit in this game, and that's Minnesota's defense. The Wolves are eighth in defensive rating, adjusted for opponent, and that's despite missing their two best defenders in Beverley and Vanderbilt for 12 and 5 games, respectively. 

Likely to have a full-strength team on Sunday (and if Beverley sits out he'll be replaced by an outstanding defender in Jaden McDaniels), Minnesota should have no problem suffocating a terrible Rockets offense. Houston is 26th in adjusted offensive rating, a figure helped by Green's 15-game absence and has failed to hit 105 points in 15 of 40 games this year. 

The Wolves' offense hasn't been much better than Houston's this year, sitting 22nd in adjusted offensive rating. For all the upside Minnesota's offense has, with three dynamic scorers in Russell, Edwards, and Towns, and an analytically friendly approach prioritizing threes, shots at the rim, and getting to the line, there have been even more struggles. The way teams are defending Towns this year has effectively killed the half-court offense and nearly the entire roster has seen their shooting splits drop, as they're 25th as a team in effective field goal percentage. 

With a trio of players capable of going for 30 on any night, Minnesota is always a threat to fill it up. That was the case Friday when it scored 135 in OKC, with the big three combining for 70 on 27 of 39 shooting. Facing bad teams isn't a guaranteed fix, however, evidenced by the Wolves clawing to a 98-90 win over the Lu Dort-less Thunder two days prior. 

With Minnesota certain to lock the Rockets up but still highly unreliable on the offensive end, we're going Under the total. 

Prediction: Under 229 (-110)

Best bet

Much has been made of Karl-Anthony Towns' career-low average of 9.3 rebounds per game this season but it hardly tells the full story, with a few, related things factoring into that mark.

The first is Towns' new build. The All-NBA center entered the season slimmer than ever before, as he looked to optimize the parts of his game that allow him to compete with even defensive monsters like Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid. That thinking has been proven correct, as no five has been able to stick with him off the dribble this season.

The second is a response to Towns' new build. Instead of sticking a center on Towns, who is averaging far-and-away the fewest post-ups per game of his career since his rookie season, teams have been defending him with fours who are more able to stick with him off the dribble and in space. Then, when a shot goes up or Towns tries to operate out of the post, teams bring the center over and double him (also why he is averaging a career-high in turnovers) making pulling down boards far more difficult.

The third factor, and why teams can bring the double on Towns so consistently, is Jarred Vanderbilt. The Wolves' starting four is one of the best rebounders in basketball, a modern-day Dennis Rodman with seemingly endless energy, and he has consistently been the one to storm in out of nowhere to end a possession (or create one on the offensive end). He is also, however, an absolute non-shooter who sits 2-for-10 on 3-pointers this year. So, while Vanderbilt stretches to the corner on offense, the center who is responsible for him can continue to clog the paint and make Towns' life so much more difficult.

While Towns continues to learn how to deal with the new way teams defend him, he's been able to still dominate similarly small teams inside. Almost all of Towns' 16 double-digit rebound games have come against teams that play as small as Minnesota or were missing parts of their big rotation.

Among those double-digit rebound games was the first meeting between the Wolves and Rockets this year. Christian Wood and Jae'Sean Tate will both be thrown at Towns but neither has the size to disrupt the Wolves' franchise player. Unless Houston dusts off Daniel Theis for this one, Towns should have no trouble topping 10 rebounds. 

Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 9.5 rebounds (-115)

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