In 35 years of franchise history, the Minnesota Timberwolves have never led a series 3-0 until now. Can they close out the Phoenix Suns with a sweep?
Well, my Timberwolves vs Suns predictions explain how they can — and should. Find out more in my NBA picks for this April 28 affair below.
Timberwolves vs Suns predictions
My best bet
Suns team total Under 106.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Phoenix Suns didn't crack 100 points in a game in this series until only 2:32 remained in Game 3, trailing by 20 points before Kevin Durant hit a nine-foot shot. They did not top tonight’s team total until more than a minute later when Bradley Beal hit a 3-pointer against a defense that was finally relaxing thanks to a 17-point lead.
The Minnesota Timberwolves had played too well, so well it could take a breather and not care what points they gave up.
If that happens again tonight, it is more likely Phoenix will not push further. The Suns kept their stars playing late in that blowout because they were trying to find some semblance of competence to carry over to Game 4. They would head to the bench in a blowout tonight to end the series.
To avoid that, Phoenix needs to make some adjustments. These three games have been too one-sided to expect the previous game plans to now yield a win.
The clearest adjustment yet to be tapped by the Suns would feature Durant at the five more often. The intent will be to force the Timberwolves’ bigs to play in space. The issue with this design, and perhaps the reason Phoenix has not yet turned to it, is the Suns do not have the offensive wings to hum in a small-ball lineup.
Grayson Allen is battling balky ankles in this series, but to be aggressive in this thought, let’s suggest he'll be healthy tonight. The lineup would be Devin Booker, Beal, Allen, Durant, and... Eric Gordon? Royce O’Neale? Bol Bol?
Whoever that fourth guard/wing would be, is the only defensive change for Minnesota. Karl-Anthony Towns will still be the primary defense on Durant. Some combination of Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Mike Conley will handle Booker, Beal, and Allen. Either the fourth or Naz Reid or Rudy Gobert will match up with Gordon, O’Neale, or Bol.
Gordon shot 33.7% from deep in the final six weeks of the regular season and went 0-for-4 in Game 3; O’Neale shot 37.2% on fewer than five threes per game — though he did go 4 of 8 in Game 3 — and Bol did not shoot from deep often enough to be seen as a long-term threat in even just one game.
Basing an offensive attack and a season’s survival on O’Neale getting hot from deep is a sign of desperation. Phoenix just may be that desperate.
That may be the only way the Suns top this team total against the best defense in the NBA, and if so, then there is massive value on this number and any total north of 104.
Timberwolves vs Suns same-game parlay (SGP)
Suns team total Under 106.5
Timberwolves moneyline
Naz Reid Over 9.5 points
If Phoenix cannot find a way to score easily, it has to be assumed Minnesota wins this game. Everything the Timberwolves do stems from their defense. Any defensive success should yield enough offense to notch this win.
Some of that offense will come from Naz Reid. If the Suns play small ball, Reid should feast. He is too big for Gordon or O’Neale to bother his shot. Anytime Reid gets a step on a smaller defender, he'll find his way into the lane for a runner or a layup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Timberwolves vs Suns odds
Timberwolves vs Suns live odds
Get the latest Timberwolves vs Suns NBA playoff odds for Game 4.
Timberwolves vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -1 (-105) | Phoenix +1 (-105)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -115 | Phoenix -105
- Over/Under: Over 211 (-110) | Under 211 (-110)
Timberwolves vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- As soon as Game 3’s blowout ended, Minnesota opened as a one-point favorite, a number that held until early Sunday afternoon, when it jumped across zero to favor Phoenix by a point.
- The spread favoring the Suns by one is an aggressive jump from Game 3 when Phoenix was favored by six. Some of that ties to the blowout and developing faith in the Wolves, and some of it is doubt in the Suns’ mental engagement down 3-0.
- The total opened at 211 and held until midmorning on Sunday when it jumped to 212.5.
Timberwolves vs Suns trend
The Suns have hit their team total Under in 20 of their last 28 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Suns.
Timberwolves vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-28-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Timberwolves vs Suns latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
