Timberwolves vs Warriors Picks and Predictions: Thompson Cooks For Home Crowd.

We wave goodbye to the weekend with the final slot on Sunday’s NBA odds board sending the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Bay Area to battle the Golden State Warriors.

Both teams are in the eye of the hurricane in the tumultuous Western Conference, with Golden State sitting No. 6 in the conference and Minnesota right behind it in seventh — just one and a half games separating them in the standings. A loss for either team could send them tumbling down the table, considering just how tight things are packed in the West.

I break down the spread and total for this Sunday shootout and give my best NBA picks and predictions for the Timberwolves vs. Warriors on March 26.

Timberwolves vs Warriors best odds

Timberwolves vs Warriors picks and predictions

Betting Klay Thompson totals have made bettors mad this March, with the Dubs’ sharpshooter running hot and cold after being engulfed in flames to begin the 2023 calendar year.

Thompson — who averaged 26.2 points the previous two months — has put up just 20.6 points per outing so far this month, cooling off considerably over the last six contests. He’s averaging just Over 17 points on 15.7 field goal attempts (42.6%), including cashing in around three of nine attempts from beyond the arc per game.

That inconsistency has burned prop bettors going Over on Klay’s production, with Thompson staying Under his projected scoring mark in five of those six outings and in eight of his last 10 appearances overall.

However, Thompson runs much like his team when it comes to home and away splits. His best work comes at Chase Center in the form of 24.7 points on 44.8% shooting, which includes an uptick to almost 42% from distance for 4.8 triples per home stand (vs. 18.6 points per road game on 38.9% shooting).

If we look at that recent cold skid, five of those six games came on the road as the Warriors have been visitors in eight of their last 11 games. Thompson has posted point totals of 22, 38, and 21 in the three home stands in this stretch. Most recently, he posted 21 points against the 76ers on 7 of 17 shooting from the field (6-for-13 from deep).

His general points projection for his game pretty much lands right on the total of 21.5 points O/U, but given his home-friendly figures I put that expected mark closer to 23 points for tonight. His ability to take and make triples — especially at home — always gives his point props a high ceiling, even with Stephen Curry sharing touches.

Minnesota doesn't possess a great perimeter defense, watching opponents enjoy a 37.3% clip on long-range looks this season (26th). Thompson exploited that soft perimeter defense when these clubs clashed at the end of February, making 6 of 14 from downtown and finishing with 32 points in a 109-104 win in San Francisco — albeit with Curry out of action.

This game's Over/Under is on the tall end for recent Warriors' tilts, and the Dubs fetch a team total of 123.5. That means plenty of scoring to thrill the Bay Area faithful and plenty of those points coming from Thompson.

My best bet: Klay Thompson Over 21.5 points (-135)

Timberwolves vs Warriors spread analysis

Minnesota opened as a 7-point road underdog in San Francisco, with star guard Anthony Edwards listed as questionable after missing the past three games with an ankle injury. According to beat reporters, there’s optimism that Edwards could suit up Sunday and that has ticked this spread down to Timberwolves +6.5 as of Sunday afternoon.

Without Edwards in the lineup the last three games, Minnesota has gone 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS against some Eastern Conference foes while getting a boost from the return of center Karl-Anthony Towns Wednesday. Towns played 26 minutes and scored 22 points but is questionable for tonight’s game.

The two wins over Atlanta and New York snapped a nasty skid for the Wolves, who had only one win in their previous six outings. Fellow guard Jaylen Nowell is also questionable for this game with Golden State.

The Warriors are a completely different machine inside Chase Center. Golden State goes from a league-worst 9-28 ATS with a net rating of -6.5 on the road to a league-best 25-11-1 ATS with a +7.7 net rating at home. The big difference is defense, where the Dubs rank No. 3 in advanced rating as hosts but 28th as visitors.

Golden State is on a three-game run (2-1 ATS), thanks in part to two road wins and a home victory over Philadelphia on Friday. The Warriors have fought through a very road-heavy schedule in March and tonight’s tangle with the Timberwolves is just the team’s fourth home stand in the past dozen games.

The Dubs have won and covered eight straight games in front of the Bay Area faithful, stretching back to February 13.

That streak includes a 109-104 victory over Minnesota as 2-point home chalk on Feb. 26, with the Warriors playing without stars Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green at the time. Wiggins is still away from the team due to personal reasons.  

Timberwolves vs Warriors Over/Under analysis

This total hit the board as low as 236.5 points last night and has marched to as high as 239.5 as of Sunday afternoon.

Edwards’ potential return would be a boost for the Timberwolves' attack, as would getting Towns back on the floor at the same time. Minnesota’s last two outings have been track meets, with scores of 140-134 and 125-124 blowing totals out of the water.

The Wolves — who rank 12th in offensive rating this month — have topped the total in four straight outings and in seven of their last nine, in large part to a poor defense that has allowed 123.7 average points against in that span.

The Warriors have gone for 120 points or more in their last three outings, including 120 points against the 76ers' defense Friday. Golden State plays at one of the quicker paces in the league, sitting fifth in pace rating since the All-Star break. Minnesota is no stranger to tempo either, ranked No. 9 in that metric.

Overall, the Dubs' defense at home has paid dividends for Under backers, with a 14-21-2 O/U mark inside the Chase Center. Minnesota, on the other hand, is a solid Over play away from home at 21-15 O/U as a visitor.

These teams have played each other three times this season, with the two most recent meetings in February staying Under the total (even with overtime needed on Feb. 1).

Timberwolves vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Timberwolves and Warriors. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Warriors.

Timberwolves vs Warriors game info

Timberwolves vs Warriors key injuries

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