Trail Blazers vs Hawks Picks and Predictions: Lillard's Magic Runs Out in Atlanta

In his 11 years with the Portland Trail Blazers, Damian Lillard has had plenty of scorching stretches. However, his current scoring run may be the best yet. 

Yet, while he flirts with averaging 40 points across two months, the Blazers are losing ground in the standings. They currently sit four games below .500 during Lillard’s surge since January 7, and if anyone can keep up with Lillard, it may be the Atlanta Hawks’ backcourt.

Find out more in our free NBA picks and predictions for Trail Blazers vs. Hawks on March 3.

Trail Blazers vs Hawks best odds

Trail Blazers vs Hawks picks and predictions

A player points prop of 36.5 should be seen only in the rarest of circumstances and not on a nightly basis, but that is the level Damian Lillard is playing at right now for the Portland Trail Blazers. 

In his last 23 games, Lillard is averaging 38.2 points. His prop may have some slight juice to the Under, but an argument could be made that it is still not high enough.

Broad logic, at least, could agree with that thought.

Focusing on tonight, a novel Atlanta Hawks focus may undo Lillard tonight. This will be Quin Snyder’s second game on Atlanta’s bench as head coach. If there was ever a time for players to want to prove themselves to a coach, it is right now for the Hawks.

They have had the last two days to practice, which is far from common in the NBA season. Plus, despite falling to Washington 119-116 on Tuesday, Atlanta held Washington to just 28.6% shooting from deep. 

Putting too much faith into that one defensive showing under Snyder risks some small sample-size issues, but the reasoning behind it tracks. Offense impresses fans, but defense impresses a new coach.

Fading Lillard right now feels foolish, but cutting down Washington’s deep attempts by more than a third stands out. Doing that to Dame should slow his scoring for one night, and one night only.

My best bet: Damian Lilliard Under 36.5 points (-120)

Trail Blazers vs Hawks spread analysis

And if unwilling to fade Lillard, fading Portland should take far less gusto. The Blazers are 2-11 against the spread on the road since mid-December. In five of those matches, Portland was an underdog of five points or more, going 1-4 ATS in those games and falling short of covering by an average of 6.9 points.

Now imagine a Blazers team that struggles that much on the road trying to reverse the trend against a defensive-minded opponent with a focus that runs directly counter to Portland’s offensive ideals...

The Blazers have shot 37 threes per game since January 1, converting at a 36.7% clip. If Atlanta cuts into those numbers, Portland may not have any chance of covering as 7.5-point underdogs.

Trail Blazers vs Hawks Over/Under analysis

241.5 is a lofty total applied to Hawks’ games of late, as only three of their last 10 games have cracked 238 points. Additionally, only two of Portland’s last 10 games have featured pregame totals of 240 or more.

Rather, this expected shootout is a result of a movable object meeting another. In the new year, the Blazers’ defensive rating ranks No. 29 in the league while the Hawks come in at 21st. 

Trail Blazers vs Hawks betting trend to know

Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last six Friday games. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Hawks.

Trail Blazers vs Hawks game info

Trail Blazers vs Hawks key injuries

Pages related to this topic