The New York Knicks have turned on the defense since acquiring O.G. Anunoby from the Raptors, winning all four games with the wing defender in the lineup and in no small part thanks to the defense.
The NBA odds say the Knicks should not have too much to worry about tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers, a Bottom-5 team in the league and one overlooked for how bad it is simply because the other four tanking teams are so atrocious. The choice tonight should be rather clear in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview Trail Blazers vs. Knicks on Tuesday, January 9.
Trail Blazers vs Knicks odds
Trail Blazers vs Knicks predictions
This Knicks' season may become known as Before O.G. and After O.G. Before O.G. Anunoby, New York was hardly the type of team Tom Thibodeau usually relishes. It ranked No. 21 in the league in team defensive rating, giving up more than five points per 100 possessions more than the No. 1 team, the Celtics.
The Knicks were winning, but they were playing at the quality of a lesser play-in team, if only the East had other teams to take advantage of that.
After O.G., New York has become Thibodeau’s ideal, leading the league in defensive rating in the last four games. Of course, that is a small sample size, but realize how decisively the Knicks lead in the category — a full seven points per 100 possessions better than the No. 6 team in the league in that stretch.
And New York has faced some decent competition in that sample, two of those games being against the West-leading Timberwolves and the defending MVP-led 76ers.
Somehow the Knicks walloped Philadelphia by 36 points on Friday, “somehow” a needed qualifier because no trade boost is worth that much of an edge. Even if removing that game, New York has held its last three opponents below their respective team totals by an average of 7.5 points. It has been downright Thibodeau-ian.
And now the Knicks face a Trail Blazers team that has lost three of its last four both outright and against the spread, is 5-14 outright on the road, and 1-4 against the spread in its last five away from home. Oh, and Portland ranks No. 28 in the league in offensive rating since Christmas Eve, ahead of only the 76ers and the Wizards. (That may be how New York blew out Philadelphia; the latter is just scuffling right now.)
Christmas Eve is intentionally set as the date range on that offensive thought, as that is how long Portland center Deandre Ayton has been sidelined with a knee injury. Not that the former Suns’ trade piece is the tipping point between quality and worry, but without him, the Blazers are running increasingly low on NBA-caliber players.
Scoot Henderson should have a wonderful career, but the rookie still turns the ball over far too often and is shooting below 40% in this seven-game stretch. Matisse Thybulle should not be within a Top-6 in the NBA these days. He should be in a rotation, but not counted on for nearly 25 minutes per game. And it is never a good sign when common NBA data websites do not have photos or illustrations for anyone past your current Top-6 contributors.
Portland is worse than has been realized, a luxury for the Blazers that they owe to the Wizards, Pistons, and Spurs for being so truly terrible. New York has found a new era, After O.G., that should exert its influence tonight on defense.
My best bet: Trail Blazers team total Under 108.5 points (-118 at FanDuel)
Trail Blazers vs Knicks same-game parlay
Trail Blazers team total Under 108.5 points
Scoot Henderson Under 5.5 assists
Julius Randle Over 28.5 points
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Henderson should be a dynamic point guard someday. He is not right now. He is, more than anything, mistake-prone right now. In this highlighted stretch of seven games without Ayton, Henderson has dished out 7.6 assists per game while turning over the ball 3.6 times. Until that ratio jumps north of 3, rather than 2.1, Portland’s offense will often struggle when Henderson has the ball.
New York should hone in on that weakness, and thus take the ball out of Henderson’s hands a bit. A lackluster Blazers offensive showing already indicates Henderson’s assists prop may fall tonight, but realizing that Thibodeau will recognize that weakness should amplify the Portland worry.
As for Randle, he has been another beneficiary of this After O.G. era. Randle has scored 35 or more points in three of four games with Anunoby in the lineup, the exception again being that odd Philadelphia blowout.
Randle is hitting from all spots and effectively turning this into a late All-Star push.
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Trail Blazers vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread of New York by 12 is just too much to trust with a best bet suggestion. It has toggled between -11.5 and even some moments at -12.5, but has settled at -12.
How bad is Portland? It has been a double-digit underdog in 10 of just 35 games, going 6-4 against the spread in those chances. Meanwhile, the Knicks have been favored by double-digits just three times this season, going 2-1 ATS, those three moments coming against the Hornets twice and once against the Pistons.
Maybe it is a general ignorance of the West Coast. Maybe failing to lose 10 games at a time reduces the interest. But whatever the reason, no one lumps the Blazers in with the Hornets, Pistons, Spurs, and Wizards. Yet that is the quality of the team right now.
This total opened at 228 on Monday before falling as low as 225.5 early Tuesday morning, then rebounding back up to 229.
That spike is worrisome, but some faith should be put in O.G. and Thibodeau.
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Trail Blazers vs Knicks betting trend to know
The Knicks are 4-0 against the spread since Anunoby joined the lineup, exceeding expectations by an average of 7.3 points even if ignoring that 36-point blowout of Philadelphia. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Knicks.
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Trail Blazers vs Knicks game info
Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
Date: | Tuesday, January 9, 2024 |
Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
TV: | ROOT Sports Plus, MSG |
Trail Blazers vs Knicks latest injuries
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