The Portland Trail Blazers are red hot, taking 10 of their last 12 games against a rigorous schedule, and they’ll once again face a tough test when they visit an even-hotter Denver Nuggets team coming in on a six-game winning streak.
Portland has matched Denver on the defensive end, and a particularly strong outlook inside my Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets predictions will explain why the delta between these teams isn’t nearly that large.
Let’s dig into some NBA picks for Monday, February 10.
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet
Trail Blazers +9.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Portland Trail Blazers are very much a team to believe in right now.
They sit second in defensive efficiency this month — just marginally behind the Oklahoma City Thunder — and have beaten out the third-place Denver Nuggets by over three points per 100 possessions.
This game should actually be pretty straightforward to handicap, considering the Nuggets have had one of the strongest offenses in the league over this span. Their ability to score here will determine the outcome.
If we hyper-focus a bit, the picture becomes even clearer. Denver has been heavily reliant on interior scoring, ranking inside the Top 3 in field-goal percentage at the rim and the short mid-range in the past 10 days, which is right around where it’s been for the entire season.
The Nuggets have taken the most shots in the league at the rim this season and now, this month, have brought their shot frequency in the short mid-range up to the eighth-highest mark.
Where it gets interesting is the Trail Blazers have come alive in recent weeks on defense, and this month, in chorus with a Top 10 performance against the three, have sat inside the Top 10 in both of these aforementioned interior shooting zones.
The fact Deandre Ayton and Donovan Clingan are now both healthy has made a world of difference for this team on defense — and on offense where Ayton has excelled at scoring inside. Even if Jerami Grant misses this game, the defense should hold strong.
Denver has done a great job on the defensive end, but even with one of the better marks against mid-range shots in the league this month, it has allowed the most shots in that zone — something that’s unsurprising, considering it ranks 23rd in the league for the season.
That should allow Portland to operate as it pleases on the offensive end. Given how well Portland matches up with Denver inside,, there really shouldn’t be much difference between these teams.
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Trail Blazers +9.5
Deandre Ayton double-double
Jamal Murray Over 21.5 points
Denver has been particularly vulnerable against the short mid-range shot this month. We’ve covered how that’s part of the mid-range area at large, where opponents have been able to get the bulk of their looks.
It’s the sweet spot for Ayton, and if he can chip in 10 or more points on these attempts, I expect the rebounds to once again be there, considering there should be many opportunities with both defenses coming in hot.
The soft spot on the floor for Portland is the long mid-range, where it’s ranked in the Bottom 5 of the league defensively this month, and there’s no better man to exploit it than Jamal Murray, who sits atop this team by a considerable margin with 23% of his shot attempts coming in the zone.
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Trail Blazers vs Nuggets odds
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets live odds
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Portland +8.5 | Denver -8.5
- Moneyline: Portland +325 | Denver -425
- Over/Under: Over 232.5 | Under 232.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread has made two moves, first heading to nine points late Sunday before reaching 9.5 early Monday morning.
- The Nuggets make up 64% of the bets and 68% of the handle wagered on the spread.
- The total initially moved up a full point and reverted to the opening number of 232.5 early Monday before plummeting three points just hours later.
- The Under has accounted for just 41% of the bets but 57% of the money.
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets trend
The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+12.40 Units / 39% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Trail Blazers vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Monday, 2-10-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KUNP, ALT |
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets latest injuries
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