It’s a matchup of veteran NBA teams looking to improve their playoff standing as Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors head to South Beach to take on Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat.
Both teams will need to improve their play down the stretch if they want to head into the playoffs with some momentum, and a win tonight would go a long way.
The NBA odds have the Dubs as slight favorites, but is there value in Miami as a home dog? I bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Heat on March 26.
Warriors vs Heat predictions
The Golden State Warriors picked the worst time to start fading, and now the Houston Rockets are breathing down their necks for the final play-in spot in the Western Conference.
The Warriors have been struggling ever since the Boston Celtics smacked the taste out of their mouths at the beginning of the month. The Warriors are 4-7 straight up and against the spread dating back to that game, ranking 19th in net rating and 23rd in defensive rating.
The Miami Heat, on the other hand, had been playing pretty good basketball for most of February and into March, but then the team got hit with a rash of injuries. As a result, they are just 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games.
To take out Miami on the road, the Warriors will need the most out of Steph Curry, particularly against a Heat squad that ranks fifth in D-rating since the All-Star break. One way to break down that defense is by making the extra pass.
The Heat surprisingly rank 21st in opponent assists per possession. Curry’s assist prop is sitting at 4.5, with a price tag of plus money. He averages 4.9 assists per game this season and has eclipsed this number in five of his last nine games. Curry also recorded five assists against this same Miami team in a matchup back on December 28.
I’m backing Steph to give a shorthanded Heat team the runaround, get his teammates involved, and go Over 4.5 assists.
My best bet: Steph Curry Over 4.5 assists (+105 at BetMGM)
Warriors vs Heat same-game parlay
Steph Curry Over 4.5 assists
Steph Curry Over 4.5 threes
Draymond Green Under 8.5 rebounds
Since Miami employs a defense that collapses on the ball, the Heat can be vulnerable on the perimeter at times. In fact, they allow the third-most opponent 3-point attempts per possession in the NBA this season. That's not exactly the way to contain Curry, who has hit 15 threes over his last three games. Bet on Steph to let it fly tonight and add Over 4.5 3-pointers to this SGP.
While Curry should be the key to the Warriors' success tonight, I’m not sure things will be as easy for Draymond Green. The Dubs' defensive leader will have a tough night matching up against Bam Adebayo.
Green averages 7.3 rebounds per game, and even though that number is up to 7.9 over his last 10 games, I’m not sure it means his rebounding total should be at 8.5. That’s a number he’s played below in seven of his last 10 games, so add Under 8.5 boards for Green to close out this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Warriors vs Heat odds and trends
Warriors vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Golden State -1 | Miami +1
- Moneyline: Golden State -130 | Miami +110
- Over/Under: Over 219 | Under 219
Warriors vs. Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Warriors have seen the early action, moving the line to Golden State -2.
- Both teams have struggled to cover spreads lately. The Warriors are 4-7 ATS in their last 11 overall while the Heat are 4-8 ATS in their last 12.
- For Golden State, it has been inconsistent play, while Miami has been bitten by the injury bug. Jimmy Butler missed shootaround today but is listed as probable to play.
- For the total, the early money has been on the Under, with the current number listed at 217.
Warriors vs. Heat betting trend to know
The Warriors have hit the game total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.10 units), while the Heat have hit the game total Under in 53 of their last 80 games (+23.30 units). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Heat.
Warriors vs Heat game info
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 26, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, NBC Sports Bay Area |
Not intended for use in MA.
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