Two of the biggest franchises in the NBA clash tonight when the New York Knicks host a Golden State Warriors team trying to play out of the NBA Play-In Tournament.
If Golden State is going to win on the road, it’s going to need to be potent on offense, given how explosive New York’s starting lineup is.
That's why my Warriors vs. Knicks predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, March 4, expect a high-scoring matchup between the two.
Warriors vs Knicks prediction
My best bet
Over 228.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
While it’s unclear if Karl-Anthony Towns will be in the lineup for Tom Thibodeau tonight, the New York Knicks will still be capable of lighting up the scoreboard.
The Knicks sit third in the NBA in offensive rating and fifth in PPG (117.6) behind an attack led by the league's eighth-highest scorer in Jalen Brunson (26.1 PPG).
Brunson has been a dynamo this season with three games of 42+ points since late December. Thanks to the former Wooden Award winner, New York is third in the NBA in field goal percentage (49.3%), sixth in 3-point percentage (37.2%), and second in made 2-pointers per game (31.3).
This is a diverse offense with many capable scorers, even if KAT doesn’t suit up. Between Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart, the Knicks should be able to push a Golden State Warriors defense outside of the Top 10 in field goal percentage allowed, 3-pointers allowed, and free throws allowed.
The Warriors have also given up 115+ points in 20 games this season and have been a fairly consistent Over bet as of late. Since Jan. 15, the Warriors are 15-7 to the Over — including hitting it in four of their last six games.
During that six-game stretch, Golden State scored 119+ points in every game due to the ageless wonder that is Steph Curry. Days away from turning 37, Curry still leads the NBA in threes per game (4.4) and has the Warriors sitting fourth in made 3-pointers per game (15.3).
That 3-point driven offense should take advantage of a New York team 19th in defensive rating (115.1) and 24th in field goal percentage allowed (47.5%). Despite Jimmy Butler’s inconsistent offensive play, the Warriors’ offense is still a threat to pop off with capable scorers such as Buddy Hield, Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody.
With the Knicks having hit the Over in 10 of their last 15 games, I think the Warriors are the perfect opponent for them to hit it once again.
Warriors vs Knicks same-game parlay
Over 228.5
OG Anunoby Over 16.5 points
Steph Curry Over 4.5 threes
While New York has several talents that could put up major points tonight, none are in a better spot to beat up on Golden State than Anunoby. This season, the Warriors allow the second-most ppg to power forwards (24.44).
Anunoby has also been playing some strong basketball lately with back-to-back games of at least four made 3-pointers. But he won’t be the only one splashing from deep, given the way Curry is set up to have a strong outing in the Big Apple.
The 11-time All-Star has hit 20 threes in his last three games and should punish a Knicks perimeter defense allowing the highest 3-point percentage in the NBA (37.6%).
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Warriors vs Knicks odds
Warriors vs Knicks live odds
Warriors vs Knicks opening odds
- Spread: Golden State +3.5 | New York -3.5
- Moneyline: Golden State +150 | New York -180
- Over/Under: Over 232 | Under 232
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
- New York opened as a 3.5-point home favorite, and the line moved further in the Knicks’ direction to -5.
- New York has struggled to consistently cover this season with a 28-31-1 record ATS, while Golden State has been a better bet at 32-28-1.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 232 but has steadily dropped, reaching as low as 228.
- The Knicks have been one of the best Over teams in the NBA this season at 34-25-1 with the Warriors not too far behind at 31-30.
Warriors vs Knicks trend
The New York Knicks have hit the game total Over in 55 of their last 88 games (+19.80 Units / 20% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Knicks.
How to watch Warriors vs Knicks
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, max |
Warriors vs Knicks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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