Warriors vs Lakers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Back Curry & Co. at Plus Value

For a game at the bottom of the play-in standings, the stakes don’t get much higher than this. The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers are separated by just two wins in the standings, with the series tiebreaker on the line as they face off on Saturday, March 16.

While it might sound like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, the difference in the NBA odds between going on the road for a win-or-go-home play-in tournament game and hosting one is massive. Both teams will be desperate for a win after spotty performances in recent weeks, and their previous matchups delivered two of the best games of the season.

My NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Lakers try to parse out which team has more left in the tank ahead of this must-win contest.

Warriors vs Lakers odds

Warriors vs Lakers predictions

The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers, two of the NBA’s last four champions and some of its most prestigious franchises, are hanging on by a thread.

If the playoffs began today, the Lakers and Warriors would square off in a loser-leaves-town play-in game in the West. Today’s game is critical for both teams because it will decide the season series (and thus the tiebreaker), and a Warriors win would pull them to within one game of the Lakers.

Steph Curry has missed three games with his ankle injury but is listed as probable to return for Saturday. Given the stakes of this game, I would be stunned if Curry doesn’t play. The same goes for LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

At close to full strength, the Warriors have been the better team this year. Despite Curry's injury absence and Draymond Green's suspension early in the season, the Dubs have looked dynamic when both have been available.

Steph and Draymond are no longer perhaps at the level where they can carry the team to wins as individuals, but they still make magic as a duo. The Warriors' new starting lineup of Steph, Draymond, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, and Brandin Podziemski has a staggering +19.6 point differential per Cleaning the Glass.

In games that matter like this one, Steve Kerr can lean on that group for big minutes.

The Lakers, by contrast, have mostly had their top two players available nearly all year long, yet they find themselves sharing the bottom of the standings with Golden State. LeBron and AD are still individually brilliant but perhaps their skills don’t complement each other as well as they did when they first teamed up.

Los Angeles also seems more reliant than ever on D'Angelo Russell to juice their otherwise moribund offense on a nightly basis. While Russell has been good this season, he is also one of the most inconsistent players of his talent level in the NBA. 

The season series sits at 1-1, and we seem destined for another barn burner tonight. I think the Warriors should be slight favorites to win, which makes the plus money value on the moneyline my favorite bet for Saturday.

My best bet: Warriors moneyline (+120 at bet365)

Warriors vs Lakers same-game parlay

Warriors moneyline

Anthony Davis Under 13.5 rebounds

Rui Hachimura Over 1.5 threes

+650 at DraftKings

The Warriors are a small team. They start Green at the five, who while a big in playstyle is shorter than most small forwards. That should make them vulnerable on the glass to a giant like AD, who plays almost exclusively inside the paint.

But it just doesn’t. The Warriors are consistently one of the NBA’s better-rebounding teams as long as Green is available. Davis has had 13 or fewer boards in seven of his last 10 games, and he’s averaged just 11.6 rebounds in seven regular season head-to-head matchups against Draymond over the past two years.

Meanwhile, Rui Hachimura is quietly having the most efficient season of his career. He’s now mercifully starting for the Lakers instead of Taurean Prince, as L.A. continues to lean into lineups that catapulted them to last year’s improbable Western Conference Finals run.

While Rui might never get as hot as he did in the playoffs ever again in his life, he’s been remarkably consistent as a shooter this season. His 41.6% 3-point mark is by far a career-best, and he’s also shooting 74% at the rim.

Of the Lakers starters, Rui is often the player left open to bring help against the likes of LeBron, AD, and Russell. He’s averaging 1.9 threes over his last 10 games, and I expect he’ll keep capitalizing on his opportunities tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Warriors vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Lakers opened at -3.5, but early action on the Warriors has seen that dip slightly to -2.5. The Dubs remain one of the best road teams to bet on this season, going 21-10 against the spread.

The Lakers suffered two demoralizing losses to Sacramento over the past 10 days. Both were must-win games if they wanted to escape the play-in, but the fact that they convincingly lost both suggests this team might be running out of steam completely.

Saturday’s total opened at 237.5, with some oddsmakers now offering it as low as 233.5. That’s a fairly significant drop, and perhaps an indication that bettors believe that Draymond will indeed play on Saturday. These teams are both capable of playing high-level defense at their best, but I worry that they present each other with offensive challenges that their respective personnel make virtually unsolvable.

Without Jarred Vanderbilt, the Lakers don’t have a good option to guard Steph. Given Kevon Looney's steep decline, the Lakers' size is also a problem for the Warriors. Defense has defined Warriors games outside of Chase Center this season, with the Under cashing in 19 of their 31 road games.

Warriors vs Lakers betting trend to know

The Warriors are 21-10 ATS on the road this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Lakers.

Warriors vs Lakers game info

Warriors vs Lakers latest injuries

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