Warriors vs Nets Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Golden State Undervalued in Brooklyn?

The Golden State Warriors and Brooklyn Nets had real goals this season, but it’s looking more and more each day that they’re going to fall well short of them.

The Warriors hoped for one more title run around the Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green core. While Steph is still Steph, the rest hasn’t added up to enough to count on them even making the play-in tournament.

The Nets had more modest expectations. They hoped to hang around the race for the sixth seed in the East and earn some respect in the post-Kevin Durant era. That just hasn’t happened, which makes their way forward with this roster and the inability to tank increasingly murky.

According to the NBA odds, this game is a virtual pick'em. Read on for my NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Nets on Monday, February 5 to see why I think Golden State is being undervalued in this matchup.

Warriors vs Nets odds

Warriors vs Nets predictions

When I’m evaluating opposing teams with relatively even recent track records like the Golden State Warriors and the Brooklyn Nets, the first thing I look at is their relative strengths. What are they good at doing and does their opponent have any unique ability to take it away? Or are they vulnerable to it?

This version of the Warriors' strength is on offense and that starts and stops with Steph Curry. He's been in a real groove again over the last several weeks, and even though it hasn’t resulted in a ton of wins, Golden State’s offensive rating is 122.9 over their last six games. That’s good enough for fourth best in the NBA over that span, per Cleaning the Glass.

It takes guards that will consistently get over screens as well as discipline, connectivity, and awareness off the ball to contain Steph. While Dennis Smith Jr. is a strong defensive guard, the rest of the Nets have glaring weaknesses either in mobility, attentiveness, or in some cases, outright lack of effort. 

Those all spell death against Steph. It doesn’t mean Curry has to score every time down either, as just the threat of his movement will create opportunities around the basket for Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski.

The Nets' strengths are harder to put your finger on. They’re the definition of a middling team, and their skills are duplicative rather than additive for the most part. Cam Thomas and Mikal Bridges are both quality scorers, but they don’t make each other or their teammates better. 

They also don’t force double teams consistently. The less the Warriors have to rotate, the stronger their defense becomes as Draymond Green will fly around from help, leaving any of the Nets non-shooters like Nic Claxton or Smith Jr. to ward off the basket.

One of the Warriors' weaknesses is their lack of ball discipline. Teams that put the appropriate pressure on their actions can often generate gobs of turnovers that in turn become fast break points. 

But Brooklyn is not that team. Despite the perception of their roster in the preseason that they had a collection of strong perimeter defenders, they’ve added up to much less than the sum of their parts on that end.

Not only do they force among the fewest turnovers in the association, but their defensive rating is just 17th on the season. The Warriors aren’t much better mind you, but with both Green and Curry playing at a high level, their ceiling is drastically higher on any given night.

All that is not to say that the Nets can’t win this game or that the Warriors should be overwhelming favorites, but I do think they’re still flat-out better than Brooklyn. 

Getting real plus money value makes this my no-brainer best bet as a result.

My best bet: Warriors moneyline (+110 at bet365)

Warriors vs Nets same-game parlay

Warriors moneyline

Steph Curry Over 4.5 made threes

Klay Thompson Under 19.5 points

+650 at DraftKings

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Klay Thompson is in a shooting slump.

After seeming to turn back the clock for a nice little stretch about a month ago, it appeared Thompson had turned the corner. Last season, he started slow and eventually rounded into a real weapon and was able to provide some consistent offense to the Golden State team in dire need. 

That hasn’t happened. Over his last seven games, Klay is averaging 16.9 points and has a stunningly bad true shooting percentage of 46.6%. With this being the third game in four nights and Klay shooting as poorly as he ever has, I think the odds he breaks out in a major way against the Nets are slim.

Steph, on the other hand, has genuinely turned his season around. After a mini-slump (relative to his lofty standard) that coincided with Green’s suspension, Steph has roared back to life and looked like an MVP-caliber player for the last several games. 

Steph has hit 5+ threes in six of his last eight games and hit 10 in his 60-point outing on Saturday. When Curry is in rhythm like this, only the world’s best team defenses can truly bother him, and the Nets fall well short of that measuring stick.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Nets spread and Over/Under analysis

The Nets opened anywhere from -1.5 and -2.5 point favorites for Monday, and oddsmakers are still offering either line at the time of writing. Given the approximate value of the spread of homecourt in the NBA, this line suggests that the Warriors and Nets are essentially comparable teams.

In some ways, that's true. They’ve certainly had similar seasons. They both have underwhelming records against the spread, though the Warriors have been slightly better of late. 

Golden State is also better on the road, going 12-8 ATS outside of Chase Center in their last 20. Brooklyn is also a bit better at home than their overall standard.

The Warriors have proven they’re capable of much better than this, while the Nets have no such argument. There’s still magic in the way that Draymond and Steph amplify each other skills and mitigate their weaknesses, and that synergy dwarfs anything Brooklyn has to offer by comparison.

The total for Warriors at Nets has hovered between 235.5 and 237 since opening Sunday afternoon. 

Only the 76ers have played in more Overs than the Warriors this season. That’s as much a product of the ability for either Splash Brother to get hot from downtown on any given night as it has been the Warriors' yo-yo defensive performances. 

Claxton, Bridges, and Smith Jr. are enough to at least make every non-Steph Warrior think twice on their drives, and that alone might be enough to tilt this toward the Under. 

However, I’m not convinced the Nets will have much luck against Golden State in the halfcourt unless they get hot from three, though Andrew Wiggins not being available to guard Mikal could give them a reasonable pressure point on offense.

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Warriors vs Nets betting trend to know

The Warriors are 12-8 ATS on the road this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Nets.

Warriors vs Nets game info

Warriors vs Nets latest injuries

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