Tonight's Golden State Warriors-New Orleans Pelicans rematch will be an actual basketball game, without any "Hero Points," or GM strategy from Dr. Strange, lightning effects, and whatever the hell else happened during the contrived and bizarre Marvel broadcast last night.
But there will still be opportunities for the players to be heroes, both in the context of play-in standings and NBA betting outcomes. Let's dive into our best free picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Pelicans on Tuesday, May 4.
Warriors vs Pelicans odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThis number has been up and down since posting very early today at PointsBet USA, where New Orleans opened -2.5, dipped to -1.5, rose to -3 and fell to -1.5 by early this afternoon. As of 5 p.m. ET, the Pelicans are still -1.5, with 72 percent of spread tickets on the Warriors, but spread money running almost dead even. The total toggled from 234.5 to 235 and back, with the Under taking 62 percent of tickets/71 percent of dollars.
Check out the full line movement for this gameWarriors vs Pelicans betting preview
Injuries
Warriors: Damion Lee SG (Out), Eric Paschall PF (Out), Kelly Oubre SG (Out).
Pelicans: Josh Hart SG (Out), Nickeil Alexander-Walker G (Out), Steven Adams C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Pelicans.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
We're having a very tough time rationalizing why the Pelicans are favored in this game. Golden State has struggled with consistency and played below the sum of its parts for most of the season, but New Orleans is perhaps the only team in the West that has fit that description more aptly in 2020-21.
The Warriors dismantled the Pels last night, smoking the spread and winning by 15 as 1.5-point dogs in a game they effectively ended in the first quarter. Despite Zion Williamson's Hulk-like superpowers, it was his team that got smashed.
We expect more fight from New Orleans for the rematch, but its approach is fundamentally flawed. The Pels are arguably the NBA's worst unit at defending the three. No team allows opponents to both shoot as many threes as the Pels and convert them at such a high rate, which is a fairly fatal error when Wardell Stephen Curry II is on the other team.
Curry went Human Torch last night and dropped 41 on the Pels, which given his current form and their matchup dysfunction could easily repeat itself. New Orleans was equally inept at stopping Andrew Wiggins, who shot 10-19 for 26 points, a total he only topped once in April in a revenge game against the hapless Wolves defense.
The Pels can't hope to outmuscle the Warriors' thin frontcourt as easily with Steven Adams still shelved, while the continued absences of Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Josh Hart stretch their bench extremely thin.
The Warriors could always revert to their inconsistent ways, but facing an opponent that's equally likely to randomly shit the bed, we'll gladly take the Dubs and the points.
PREDICTION: Golden State +2 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Last night's game snuck under the 236.5 total, and we're getting a slight discount on tonight's number at 235.
We're bullish about the prospects of a better offensive effort from New Orleans, which came out flat with 21 first-quarter points and failed to get anything going from there. The Pelicans shot just 43 percent (well down from their season average of 48), including a horrific 5 for 25 from 3-point range.
We're not counting on them stopping the Warriors, who will gladly keep bombing half their total shot attempts from long distance. We're also not counting on the pace being slowed much here, as Golden State is clearly comfortable making the Pels play their tempo (second-fastest in the NBA).
The Warriors do (somehow) sport the league's ninth-rated D on the season, but buoyed by a high-volume weapon who scores as efficiently as Zion, it's tough to see the Pelicans putting up as dreadful an effort on offense again tonight.
Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, and James Johnson were a combined 11-39 from the floor last night. Even a slightly-improved outing should push this one Over the total, which New Orleans has hit in two-thirds of its home games this year.
PREDICTION: Over 235 (-110)
Player prop pick
Curry's been absolutely destroying teams of late, fully cognizant that his supporting cast lacks a consistent scoring punch, and the Warriors' hopes of making the playoffs depend on him going nuclear.
He responded to gut-check time by averaging 37.3 ppg in April, failing to reach the 30-point plateau only twice (one of which was a blowout loss to Dallas).
Given the inherent matchup flaws dictated by New Orleans' commitment to defending the rim at the cost of giving up the three, it will leave itself extremely susceptible to another eruption. As such, we're not shying away from Curry's points total to be eclipsed again tonight, where hopefully, his brilliance can speak for itself without lame special effects.
PREDICTION: Stephen Curry Over 35.5 points (-117)
Warriors vs Pelicans betting card
- Golden State +2 (-110)
- Over 235 (-110)
- Stephen Curry Over 35.5 points (-117)
Picks made on 5/4/2021 at 12:00 p.m. ET
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