Eighteen weeks of football have boiled down to six NFL Wild Card Round spreads and totals.
All eyes and action are on these postseason contests, which means the markets are the most efficient we’ve seen all season. Trying to beat the bookies is all about getting the best number for your opinion.
That means betting into the openers before notable adjustments or waiting for lines to move before buying back the better number
These are my "Bet Now, Bet Later" NFL picks for the Wild Card games.
Wild Card Weekend bet now, bet later picks
- Chargers (-2) at Texans: Bet Now
- Broncos at Bills (-8.5): Bet Later
- Packers at Eagles (Under 47.5): Bet Now
- Steelers at Ravens (Under 46.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Houston Texans: Bet Now
The Los Angeles Chargers turned it up in Week 18 with a comeback victory in Vegas to snatch the No. 5 seed away from the Steelers. That sends Los Angeles to Houston, where bookies have set the Bolts at short road favorites.
The Chargers are as short as 2-point chalk at sharper books with mainstream markets dealing -2.5.
The Houston Texans backed into the postseason thanks to a listless AFC South and out of all the tournament teams, Houston’s 10 wins seem like they don’t belong. The Texans have come up short against playoff-quality opposition, losing to the likes of Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, Green Bay, and Minnesota.
Los Angeles is far from elite, especially on defense, but Houston’s attack has lacked punch and enters the Wild Card Weekend as the lowest-rated offense in EPA per play (No. 22) as well as success rate per snap (31st).
If you’re backing the Bolts, make sure you get them below a field-goal favorite on the road this weekend.
Best odds to bet Chargers -2.5 right now
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-8.5): Bet Later
Underdogs have put the "Wild" in Wild Card Weekend in recent years, covering at a 67% clip the past seven postseasons. I believe the Denver Broncos will draw support after opening as big as an 8.5-point underdog at the Buffalo Bills.
Denver’s defense is by far the best stop unit the Bills have taken on in a long, long time. Buffalo has faced defenses ranked 30th (twice), 27th, 22nd, and 21st since Week 13 along with an injury-depleted Detroit team in Week 15.
The Broncos offense has been much improved in the second half of the schedule, too, ranking just outside of the Top 10 in EPA per play since Week 11. However, we do have a rookie QB in Bo Nix making his first playoff appearance — in Orchard Park, of all places — and the postseason hasn’t been kind to first-year quarterbacks.
Some sharper books hit the board at Bills -8.5 while mainstream operators opened Buffalo -7.5. Given the dead number of eight in between, there’s no rush to snatch the Bills at the lower spread. If you like Bills Mafia to break more than tables this Wild Card Weekend, hold off and see if support shows up for Denver, trimming this line to a touchdown later in the week.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (Under 47.5): Bet Now
The look-ahead line for this NFC Wild Card contest was at 47.5 O/U before the events of Week 18, dropping a touch after the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles mailed in their finales.
Some books are higher at 47 points while others are sitting at 46.5, below the key Over/Under number. I like the Under and if you do too, grab it now at 47 points (-112). Some books are back at 47.5, so take that that while it lasts.
We have two of the more run-heavy playbooks doing battle in Philadelphia, which means short gains with the clock running — a recipe for Under results. The Eagles and Packers sit No. 1 and No. 3 respectively in rushing play percentage.
What’s more, you have elite defenses (No. 3 and No. 4 in EPA allowed per play) that protect against the pass, especially Philadelphia, which has allowed the second-fewest passes of 20+ yards on the season.
The Eagles have found their sweet spot in Vic Fangio’s tricky defensive schemes, coming a long way since that Week 1 meeting with the Packers in Brazil.
This has been the best stop unit in the NFL since Week 10 and has given up more than 20 points at home only twice this season (2-6 O/U at Lincoln Financial Field).
Philadelphia has been an Under machine in playoff games since 2019, boasting a 1-5 O/U count in the tournament, with that lone Over coming in Super Bowl LVII.
Best odds to bet Under 47.5 right now
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Under 46.5): Bet Later
The total for this AFC North trilogy sits just short of the key Over/Under number of 47 points.
At 46.5 points, this O/U is more than two points higher than the closing total of 44 that got blown out of the water when the Baltimore Ravens beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-17 back in Week 16.
Bettors could run back to that most recent matchup and tally an Over for this AFC Wild Card contest, pushing this number upward. If you’re thinking Under, you’ll want to wait and see if we get 47 points later in the week.
Looking into that Week 16 result, we find Baltimore broke the game open with a defensive score to start the fourth quarter and Ravens MVP QB Lamar Jackson didn’t have a monster game, passing for just over 200 yards and rushing for an additional 22 gains on the ground.
In fact, Pittsburgh is the one team that gave the reigning MVP trouble this season. Jackson posted similar passing numbers in a Week 11 loss at Pittsburgh and his collective passer rating of 87.9 versus the Steelers is his lowest measurement against any foe this season.
Mike Tomlin’s defense hit the skids during the late-season slump, which had something to do with the Steelers’ schedule squeezing them. But with a mini-bye last week, the Pittsburgh defense came to play against the Bengals’ explosive attack, checking Cincinnati to only 19 points and a 1-for-4 day in the red zone in the Week 18 finale.
Baltimore’s stop unit has also rounded into postseason form, ranking No. 1 in EPA allowed per play since Week 11. The Ravens stomped into the postseason giving up the second-lowest points per play in the final three games.
These AFC North foes have been Under wonders in recent clashes, with Pittsburgh and Baltimore going 2-8 O/U in head-to-head meetings since 2020.
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