One of the greatest rivalries in football gets a trilogy bout when the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens battle for a third time this season, kicking off the AFC Wild Card Round this Saturday.
These divisional foes split their regular season run-ins with Baltimore getting the last laugh in a 34-17 trouncing as a 7.5-point home favorite in Week 16. The spread for this Saturday’s 8 p.m. ET encounter is even bigger, with early play on the home side pushing the points spread higher.
I size up the AFC Wild Card odds and give my early NFL picks, leans, and predictions for Steelers at Ravens on January 11.
Steelers vs Ravens predictions
Early spread lean
Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I’ve seen the Week 16 result and witnessed the Pittsburgh Steelers backing into the playoffs, with a four-game slide burning their shot at the No. 5 seed in the conference. But these AFC North rivalries are built differently.
Mike Tomlin is the greatest coach when it comes to cashing in as an underdog and he’s especially strong when it comes to these divisional matchups. Since 2007, Tomlin’s Steelers are 38-14-2 ATS as a pup in AFC North contests, including a 13-3-2 ATS mark when getting points against the Baltimore Ravens.
When it comes to this year’s team, Pittsburgh got a rough draw of schedule to close out the campaign, playing a stint of four road games in six weeks while also compressing three games in 11 days — those three outings coming against the likes of Philadelphia (road), Baltimore (road), and Kansas City.
I’m going to discount that last loss to the Ravens a bit and it feels like this spread has run a little too far with most shops at Baltimore -9.5 and sharper books hanging a cheaper -10 on the home side.
These teams know each other too well. I could see the Steelers getting a touchdown or even +7.5, but the move closer to +10 seems influenced by that Week 16 result. I’ll lean toward the big playoff pup.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 45.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This Over/Under opened at 46.5 points on Sunday night and has been trimmed to 45.5 overnight.
That adjustment brings the number closer to the closing number of the Week 16 matchup in Baltimore, which was 44 points (FYI: 34-17 final went Over the total but needed a defensive TD from the Ravens to do so).
The Steelers stop unit had been among the league’s strongest for most of the year, but injuries and that tight schedule squeeze toward the end of December gave way to some less-than-stellar showings.
Pittsburgh got the defense back into shape for Week 18 due to a mini-bye after playing on Wednesday in Week 17. The Steelers checked the high-powered Bengals to 19 points and while they lost 19-17, the final did come in well below the 48.5-point O/U.
Tomlin knows his limited offense can’t trade shots with Baltimore’s attack, so he’ll tune up his stop unit to slow down Lamar Jackson & Co. Pittsburgh has done a good job against the reigning MVP this season, with Jackson posting a collective passer rating of 87.9 in the two games versus the Steelers (second lowest of all 2024 opponents).
As for the Baltimore defense, it took some time to find its way after coordinator Mike Macdonald left for Seattle in the offseason. The Ravens ranked 27th in EPA allowed in the opening 10 weeks of play before adapting to new DC Zach Orr’s schemes, jumping to No. 1 in that advanced metric from Week 11 onward.
These rivals have pumped out defensive grinders in recent head-to-head clashes, with the Steelers and Ravens going 2-8 O/U in their last 10 matchups. Even with the total dropping, I like the Under with the number above the next key stop of 44 O/U.
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Steelers vs Ravens live odds
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