Wizards vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Giannis Returns to Thwart Washington's Winning Streak

Tonight's slate features one of the NBA’s hottest teams, the Washington Wizards, trying to pull off the rare home-and-home sweep as they face the Milwaukee Bucks for the second time in three days. Washington won that first game in a walk, a 118-95 blowout with all three of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton sidelined.

The Bucks have now lost five of six and will be seeking revenge against a Wizards team that has now won five straight.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Wizards vs. Bucks zero on Giannis’ compensating for Milwaukee's sputtering halfcourt offense with his exceptional rebounding prowess.

Wizards vs Bucks best odds

Wizards vs Bucks picks and predictions

The Milwaukee Bucks have always been a team that likes to win ugly, but they’re taking to new extremes this season. They’ve fallen all the way to 23rd on offense, narrowly ahead of the 10-30 Detroit Pistons. Over the past two weeks, they’ve played at the level of the league's worst offense, and the losses are beginning to pile up.

There’s a simple enough explanation. Without Khris Middleton, the Bucks simply don’t have enough playmaking juice or shot creation to score efficiently in the half court. Even for a transition-focused team like the Bucks, that’s close to 80% of your offensive possessions where they’re starting behind the eight-ball.

In order to win, the Bucks have to dominate the possession game and to do that, Giannis Antetokounmpo has to crush opposing teams on the boards.

Luckily enough for Milwaukee, Giannis is one of the best rebounders in the NBA and has been on a total tear on the glass. Before missing Sunday’s game against the Wizards, Giannis had back-to-back 20+ rebound performances against Minnesota and Chicago. His 26.3% defensive rebounding rate is 95th percentile among all bigs per Cleaning the Glass and is the highest mark he’s had since the 2019-20 season.

The Washington Wizards are also among the worst offensive-rebounding teams in the NBA, ranking in the Bottom 10 in that category. Kristaps Porzingis has made strides as a rebounder over his career but he’s still liable to get pushed around by the likes of the Greek Freak. Plus, his perimeter-oriented style of play often sees him far away from the basket.

Giannis is averaging 13.4 rebounds over his last 10 games and an eyepopping 15.6 over his last five. With the Bucks having no viable path to victory without a Giannis masterpiece on the glass, I fully expect one again tonight.

My best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 12.5 rebounds (+100)

Wizards vs Bucks spread analysis

What on earth has gotten into the Wizards? This same team just recently snapped a 10-game losing streak, only to turn around and now win five in a row, both straight up and against the spread. That included wins over the Philadelphia 76ers and the Sacramento Kings and dominant performances against other struggling teams. Three also came without the services of Bradley Beal, who remains out tonight with a hamstring injury.

It would be all too easy to write this off as a fluke, but the Wizards' fundamentals speak to a competent team playing a sustainable style of basketball. Indeed, it’s the 10-game losing streak that appears as a massive outlier, as by point differential they would have been expected to win about 2.3 more games than they have so far. They are the 30th-ranked team in the NBA by win differential per Cleaning the Glass, the definition of unlucky.

Over the past seven games, they’re the second-best defense and the sixth-best offense and are beating the spread by an average of 15.2 points. The Bucks, by contrast, have underperformed the spread by 11.5 points over that same span and are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Even with Giannis and Jrue returning to action, I like the Wizards at +8.5 to keep this a somewhat competitive game.

Wizards vs Bucks Over/Under analysis

The total for the game when these two teams played on Sunday ended up at 213, and the line tonight has hovered around 226. The lion’s share of that shift should come from Giannis’ return to the starting lineup, as the Bucks have one of the worst half-court offenses in the NBA without him. 

But the Wizards are still in a pretty good position to defend against Giannis. Obviously, they don’t have anyone to guard him one-on-one, but they’ve been playing Daniel Gafford at the five with Porzingis as the roaming backline four during the win streak, in an alignment similar to the Boston Celtics with Al Horford and Robert Williams. The Bucks routinely have a player on the court that KP should feel comfortable cheating off into the lane (or at least feel better than leaving Gafford on an island to deal with Giannis).

The Wizards have been getting it done during this recent win streak on the defensive end, with the Under cashing in seven of their last nine overall.

By contrast, the Over is 8-2 in Milwaukee’s last 10 home games. A lot of that is the Bucks' role players, who turn into pumpkins whenever they leave Fiserv Forum. Case in point is Grayson Allen, who is shooting 45.8% on threes at home, but a frigid 29.6% on the road. With Giannis and Jrue back, the Bucks' role players should see more quality looks than they did on Sunday, so the Over cashing at 226 would not surprise me.

Wizards vs Bucks betting trend to know

The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Bucks.

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