The Denver Nuggets just cannot separate themselves in the standings. They remain only a game ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers in the crowded Western Conference, fighting for homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
The good news for Denver is the New Orleans Pelicans have clearly thrown in the towel. Trading Daniel Theis might have fallen below the surface in the wake of the weekend’s massive trades, but it removed another piece from the rotation.
So my Pelicans vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks trust the home team to continue its dominance at altitude. The tip comes at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 5.
Pelicans vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet
Nuggets -10.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
On Wednesday afternoon, the New Orleans Pelicans shipped center Daniel Theis to the Oklahoma City Thunder, adding a second-round draft pick to thank OKC for taking on his $2.1 million contract.
No, Theis is not a massive piece and probably won't be in the Thunder’s postseason rotation. But he was playing 19.5 minutes per game for New Orleans in the last month. This roster may be disappointing and mired in the West’s cellar with the Jazz, but Theis was still a contributing piece.
Along with the persistent rumors that Brandon Ingram remains available, the writing on the wall is clear: The Pelicans are embracing the tank for Duke superstar Cooper Flagg, already enjoying one of the three worst records in the NBA.
Listless New Orleans will not find direction against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have gone 8-1 against the spread as home favorites in the last two months, stumbling against only the San Antonio Spurs. Six of those eight ATS successes were as favorites of at least three buckets, including as 14.5-point favorites against the Nets, winning by 19.
It also includes beating these same Pelicans by 12 points on Monday night when favored by nine.
Furthermore, Denver has exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 8.7 points when favored at home in the last two months, and that includes the sole ATS loss.
Sportsbooks don't properly appreciate the Nuggets’ homecourt advantage, and they are also failing to recognize the disappointing nature of everything related to the Pelicans, especially since they have gone 1-5-1 ATS in the last two weeks.
Pelicans vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Nuggets -10.5
Nikola Jokic Under 12.5 rebounds
Nikola Jokic Under 51.5 pts+reb+ast
Doubting Nikola Jokic while expecting the Nuggets to cover the spread may seem counterintuitive, but the entire thought process is to expect a blowout. Denver was up by 18 points at halftime on Monday night before losing the third quarter by 10. If the Nuggets avoid that same slip out of halftime, Jokic should not need to play his usual 36+ minutes.
For example, in three blowouts since Jan. 17, Jokic played just 30 minutes in each. He cleared this rebounding prop in two of them, though one by only the hook, and fell short of this points + rebounds + assists number in all three.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Pelicans vs Nuggets odds
Pelicans vs Nuggets live odds
Pelicans vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +10 (-110) | Denver -10 (-110)
- Moneyline: New Orleans +425 | Denver -575
- Over/Under: Over 239.5 (-110) | Under 239.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pelicans vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened with the Nuggets favored by 10 points on Wednesday afternoon and has only slightly ticked up to 10.5.
- New Orleans is 7-17 against the spread on the road this season.
- The total opened at 239.5 and dabbled some of the overnight at 240.5 before slipping back down to 239.5 early on Wednesday.
Pelicans vs Nuggets trend
To reiterate the above, Denver is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite in the last two months. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Pelicans vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ALT, SportsNet |
Pelicans vs Nuggets latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
